I feel very comfortable saying in 5 years Helion won't have anything.

Because HackerNews was soooo confident that a startup style skunkworks initiative would lead to over-unity fusion in 5 years[1]...in 2014.

Then they were soooo confident that MIT was going to blow past ITER to over unity fusion[2] ... in 2020.

It's 2025, and the latter project is still running but now predicting it'll finish it's big reactor post-2030.

Helion are currently now reporting no new results, but claiming they'll hit net-energy in 2028 somehow despite little technical detail. After claiming they'll show net-energy fusion in 2024.[3]

So there's my evidence. Where's your evidence?

It should be noted that I'm not actually against private fusion research - more research is great. But the unfounded confidence with which HackerNews users make predictions of the obvious superiority and success of private industry in achieving fusion has a track record of "we still don't have fusion" despite company's dating back as early to early last decade when we're mid-2020s now.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8458339

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24629828

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy

The problem with Helion is that their "Polaris" device isn't working yet. That was supposed to do some fusion and recapture some energy, even if not breakeven. It was supposed to be operational by now.

Success with Polaris would be a big deal. Helion isn't mentioning it much any more. Not good. December 2024 discussion on Reddit.[1] Discussion in the last month on Reddit.[2] Video from Helion that mentions mostly Trenta, the previous machine.[3]

Yet they're pouring concrete for the next machine.

Uh oh.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/fusion/comments/1hlojqu/any_news_on...

[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/fusion/comments/1lv4e2h/what_has_ch...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuB3bIsJeJA

I like how your mode of argument would have led you to confidently assert SpaceX was going to fail. Please conduct some QA on your logic, mkay?

Who here is "soooo" confident Helion will succeed? One can be excited about a company without thinking they're a sure thing. The world is going to spend maybe a quadrillion dollars on energy in this century, so even low odds bets can be very worthwhile.

Those two HN links there were to stories about companies other than Helion. I agree the DT efforts are dubious.

Helion has been reporting results, btw. Have you been reading? Maybe you're complaining they haven't finished all of the next machine yet? "They didn't snap their fingers to make their machine, therefore they're frauds!" isn't a good look.

https://x.com/helion_energy?lang=en