My dad recently told me it's broadly like that where he works, but at the IC level. It's mostly boomers and millennials, but the boomers actively retiring.

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Jtsummers 3 days ago | parent [-]

That's a bathtub curve. You see it in a lot of industries. The joke for AE at GA Tech circa 2000 was "Aerospace 'Do you want fries with that?' Engineering". Hiring picked up later as Baby Boomers and other older generations started hitting retirement age, but the effect is that a generation gets largely skipped over. Those trained and interested in it will find jobs elsewhere, tangentially related to the field perhaps but not training towards those critical, soon to be vacant positions.

You have a lot of seniors, a lot of juniors (because eventually you realize the coming staffing problem), and few mid-career folks (as a proportion of the whole). A particular downside is that retirement cliff. When the seniors go, you lose decades of experience for each retiree, centuries of experience with every 2-4 retirees.

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dehrmann 3 days ago | parent [-]

Or is it a bullwhip effect?

	▲	Jtsummers 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		I thought I wrote a reply, but I guess I didn't submit it. Summary version rather than rewriting: A bathtub curve could show up along with the bullwhip effect. It doesn't describe how it came into existence, it's descriptive of the structure. If you have a long enough period in your bullwhip effect, you could see the seniors riding it out without replacements or additional hires coming in (they weren't seniors when this started) because of insufficient demand. Then a demand increase causes a hiring surge, but it's mostly targeted at juniors because they're cheaper and you still have your seniors.