A very good thought! Deno and Bun have this formidable funding for sure, but Node.js is still innovating. Things like type-stripping and require(esm) come to mind. I think as long as big companies use it for Electron, Node.js will continue to get investment. Even if the investment were to dry up, experience teaches us that old tools die hard.

I would hope that interoperability goes up. The React Native community are closing in on support for Node-API, and with that maybe we can start sharing native code between desktop and mobile. The WinterCG effort is also going well.

As for canaries, I think sustainability is the main thing to look at. What is the surface area of this tool, how much expertise and effort does it take to maintain it, and who is invested in its survival? The more we can share common implementations like Intl and Temporal, the easier it is for smaller players to keep up. And of course, the more the big players try to diverge (looking at you, Chrome), the harder it gets.