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antithesizer 4 days ago

What do you do when you have a product whose value will inevitably drop in the medium/long-term? Squeeze every penny out of it while you still can. There is no solution to the SEO arms race, like there was no way Yahoo's blandly curated portal could stay relevant in the era of social media. He's the right man for the job. Google search has been doomed for a long time. It is another Yahoo.

somenameforme 4 days ago | parent [-]

LLMs have, for me at least, mostly replaced search. Because one of the most common things I search for is stuff like 'what is the function in [x] that does [y] in [z]'. Search for that on Google (or any other search engine) and your results will be complete trash. Search for it on an LLM and it's one of the few things they're nearly perfect at.

Search engines, especially with the resources of Google, could have developed at least basically functional natural language search decades ago. Instead they chose to rest on their laurels (pagerank even still plays a significant role!), and secure market control by anti-competitive behavior.

Google is certainly well on their way to becoming another Yahoo, but there's no extrinsic reason for it in the same way there was no reason for Yahoo to become what it became. In 100 years people will be searching the corpus of human writings (or whatever medium is dominant then) for information that's relevant to them. So there's in intrinsic reason for any search related company to just naturally die. It simply needs to keep innovating, or at least evolutionarily improving.

Melatonic 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

This is exactly why I use Kagi - I can easily use an integrated LLM by adding a "?" to my search or just get the results I want quickly and easily.

starfallg 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Because one of the most common things I search for is stuff like 'what is the function in [x] that does [y] in [z]'.

This is also the type of search that Google makes no money from.

The money is in searching for up-to-date relevant product information, where Google is the undisputed leader.

>Search engines, especially with the resources of Google, could have developed at least basically functional natural language search decades ago

Google is one of the major AI research outfits, and arguably the only one that continues to deliver consistently over the last 2 decades. Statistical Machine Translation/Google Translate, Adwords Quality Score, TensorFlow, AlphaGo, Attention is all you need (Transformers), AlphaFold all Google innovations.

You can't really blame the prevalence of SEO slop on Google. It's not the lack of want of trying, it is hard technically (see how long it took to develop modern AI capabilities), expensive computationally (as we can see with the unsustainable cost of test-time search in ChatGPT) and in terms of user-experience.

>Google is certainly well on their way to becoming another Yahoo

Really, it isn't. Google is in the unique position of being the closest technology company to achieving full vertical integration of their value chain, from silicon to software to data to end-users. They are also at the forefront of frontier AI, including productising the research output. I don't really get the Google hate on HN, apart from maybe the YC/sama bias.

somenameforme 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Your answer sounds very artificial. For instance "AI" is in no way whatsoever required for natural language search queries. There was some spreadsheet program back in the mid 90s that even supported natural language operation description - and is something that should also be obviously supported now a days. Even the adventure games of the same era often had natural language interfaces. It was quite useable even if obviously severely limited by minimal R&D put into it.

It was an obvious way to create a better user experience but instead search today is comparable to, if not worse than, search 20 years ago - because at least 20 years ago companies were ahead of the SEO guys, whereas that relationship has long since flipped.

starfallg 4 days ago | parent [-]

What makes you think that Google hasn't developed natural language processing, when they launched Google Translate in 2006?

Also, what makes you think that NLP would solve the problem you're describing? Only LLMs has proven that it could fully understand and process the queries in the way you're describing, hence why I brought that up. However it is expensive computationally, and only recently was it even technically possible to do.

somenameforme 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Most searches, even in natural language, are extremely simple. Google could certainly have added this functionality, but they chose not to. This is how old giants always die. They become so obsessed with further squeezing their users that they begin to stagnate, decline, and eventually completely miss the writing on the wall - and face disruption.

scarface_74 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Translate is not what most people consider NLP.

starfallg 3 days ago | parent [-]

Translation between languages and into logical representations is one of the main goals of NLP since the 1950s.

bdangubic 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I will tell you all you need to know about Google - I was doing some research for a product I am building, my daughter (age 12) was an inspiration for what I am building and I asked her if she had time to help me with something and she did. Told her to “google ____” and she started laughing HARD and called me a boomer for suggesting she use Google… :)

integralid 3 days ago | parent [-]

Anecdotal evidence, not backed up by data. Actual data clearly shows that Google is the leading search engine across all age groups.

somenameforme 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

These aren't incompatible issues. Google has a monopoly maintained by excessive and illegal anti-competitive practices. The majority of users have no clue how to even change their default search engine, which Google actively exploits. Just checking it out - it took no less than 6 clicks into various specific menu and sub-menu settings to do so.

Poll only the subset of people that are actively aware of how to change their search engine and I suspect Google's dominance suddenly completely disappears. Remember, there was a time when Internet Explorer was the leading web browser across all age groups. Then Microsoft was forced to make it easier for people to change their default browser, and suddenly nobody was using IE anymore.

bdangubic 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

My apologies, I did not mean to imply that my kid's humour is evidence of Google's demise. But it does make you wonder a bit... we use Google out habit (they used to be decent) and also because they pay boatload of money to be default search on iphone and myriad of other reasons but younger generations do not have that intimate relationship with google and can see "with fresh eyes" its usefulness compared to the alternatives ...

scarface_74 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The money is in searching for up-to-date relevant product information, where Google is the undisputed leader.

Actually for products, a lot of people just go to Amazon has a thriving ad business.

> Google is one of the major AI research outfits, and arguably the only one that continues to deliver consistently over the last 2 decades. Statistical Machine Translation/Google Translate, Adwords Quality Score, TensorFlow, AlphaGo, Attention is all you need (Transformers), AlphaFold all Google innovations.

The problem with Google is that they can’t produce good profitable products. Innovation means nothing for a for profit company if it doesn’t make money.

encom 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

>I don't really get the Google hate

Easy. Google is basically spyware. It's an advertising company, and their product is you.

>searching for up-to-date relevant product information

I realise I'm not a typical user, but I would never trust Google for any searches hinting that I'm looking to buy something, because the results are almost guaranteed to be inorganic. Someone will have paid Google money to be promoted for "best clothes dryer".

starfallg 4 days ago | parent [-]

>Easy. Google is basically spyware. It's an advertising company, and their product is you.

This is such a flippant and facile response.

Google isn't a advertising company, it is a tech company that gets the majority of its revenue via selling advertising. This can change, and also likely to change in the next decade or so.

The reason things are is that nobody was willing to pay for search - it's a product with a very low incremental cost. The market dictated this operating model, and nobody has been able to upend this model so far, not even OAI. The numbers just don't work out. Do you think OAI can continue to subsidise free ChatGPT queries with paid ChatGPT Plus subscriptions? Almost certainly not.

Melatonic 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

I think actually people probably are willing to pay for search - Google just did such a damn good job for so long it made it impossible for a competitor to pop up

And now that their core product is getting worse I am paying for search

Eisenstein 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

How else should someone take the statement 'that is the type of search that Google makes no money from' when someone explained what type of searches they do? If Google doesn't make money from it, they don't develop it for search apparently, which is why they haven't progressed in search beyond advertising. You can argue that it needs disrupting, but concluding that 'they make their money from advertising' when that was directly stated by you is not flippant or facile, it is deduction.

You can't eat your cake and still have it. If they refuse to develop an income stream that isn't related to advertising while using practices that use their dominant place in the market to buy other technologies or shut them down, then saying it isn't their fault that the revenue is only advertising is either disingenuous or naive.