> 1) "We're out of easily extractable oil" maybe, but I've heard it before and technology does have a way of marching forward.

You've heard it before because it's been true for a long time. Technology marches forwards, yes, but technology is expensive, and like I said, a lot of domestic production has fairly high price levels below which they will not operate.

> 2) "Rest of world's oil demand will drop" is possible but certainly not happening today and far from certain.

That's totally fair.

> 3) "Then Oil prices will plummet in the US Domestic market" is far from a sure thing even if 2) comes to pass. How do the other producers - who don't have large domestic markets! - react? What happens to global petrochemical demand? And what sort of Industrial policy could shield our markets, even if this happens globally?

Assuming (2) does happen, then I think this follows naturally. The cost to produce a barrel of oil varies wildly by country. If global demand drops, then the cheapest producers eat the market that they currently cannot fully supply.

Could industrial policy shield this? Sure, but at great cost to the US; that would have the side effect of pushing down energy prices for the rest of the world even more, making it even harder for us to keep up.

Uranium absolutely could save us, but I think we're a couple decades out from the political will being there to really get a lot of nuclear online.