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akdev1l 5 days ago

Tldr; yes they are kind of cooked

qzw 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Cooked in the short/medium term, yes, but remains to be seen in the longer term. I feel like they’re ironically in the same position AMD was in before AMD spun off Global Foundries: not being able to keep up with the new nodes on the manufacturing side, which also drags down the design side. They could follow the same playbook and sell off the foundries, which will be a blow to their pride, but should free them up to compete better on designs alone.

echelon 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Why is the government bailing them out then? Is that just good money thrown after bad?

Regardless, it seems like the company leadership should be gutted (the same could be said of Boeing) and the company given over to a new technically-grounded leadership team.

epistasis 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

What is the alternative, except dependence on foreign countries for key economic inputs?

Betting some on Intel is very wise when the alternatives are, as I see it: 1) investing in TSMC building fabs and creating more of an employee knowledge base and skill base on shore, 2) hoping a US-based startup gets enough traction to grow.

Agreed on leadership. But selecting leadership teams, especially technically-grounded leadership teams is extremely difficult. Which is why companies revert to non-technical leadership so often.

cjbgkagh 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Throwing good money after bad sounds like something governments are prone to do. Dysfunctions tend to grow as those who benefited from corruption have more money now to spend on more corruption.

Since Intel has been mismanaged for so long I don’t know how many good lower level employees they managed to retain, I doubt much would be left if they properly cleaned house.

Workaccount2 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The inability to make SOTA silicon chips domestically would be catastrophic in a event of a war in the east.

TSMC is making fabs in the US, but they are not SOTA fabs. Those are kept in Taiwan.

wbl 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Texas Instruments would like to say hi. You don't need SOTA chips for weapons, but exotic capabilities to process data and interact with the radio and infared world.

codedokode 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Isn't building a TSMC factory in US a violation of a "don't build your home on someone's else land" principle? US will be able to shut down or even nationalize the factory, full of expensive equipment, at any moment. It's like lending a goose with golden eggs to your neighbour.

Ray20 3 days ago | parent [-]

What's the alternative? Literally one of the safest places for your golden goose on the planet

sho_hn 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

A lot of the more complicated equipment in TSMC fabs (e.g. EUV equipment) is from Europe.

Building a fab is no mean feat and loss of infra is a major blow, but it's certainly not impossible to build these fabs in the West, just not economical. You are not starting from scratch.

5 days ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
Yossarrian22 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They actually haven’t meet the requirements to get CHIPS funding, and they kinda got screwed with a military deal reducing the amount CHIPS allocated for them if they do.

That being said the government will likely not allow them to fail completely out of the foundry business for geopolitical reasons

tester756 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>Why is the government bailing them out then?

There wasn't any bailout on them, what do you mean?

_zoltan_ 5 days ago | parent [-]

???

google://Intel chips act billions

doublepg23 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

I believe that was a reaction to the global chip shortage during COVID. An investment in domestic chip production capabilities not a bailout for bad moves.

Intel was looking bad but not the dire state they’re in now.

tester756 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

How can you call it "Intel bailout" if it benefited many semico companies?

>The CHIPS Act primarily benefits semiconductor manufacturers and related industries by providing substantial funding for domestic chip production and research. Companies like Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Micron have received significant grants and loans to expand or establish new manufacturing facilities in the United States.

>The act authorizes roughly $280 billion in new funding to boost domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States, for which it appropriates $52.7 billion

>The act includes $39 billion in subsidies for chip manufacturing on U.S. soil along with 25% investment tax credits for costs of manufacturing equipment, and $13 billion for semiconductor research and workforce training, with the dual aim of strengthening American supply chain resilience and countering China

ryanobjc 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because there's a strategic benefit and the cost is practically negligible compared to the cost of this section of the economy going away.

That is the political calculation, not "throw good money after bad" kind of economics 101.

vFunct 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm surprised the US just doesn't fund a new fab company or consortium, like Japan did with Rapidus.

But I guess "too much socialism"

epistasis 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think the current Republican leadership has any opposition at all to handing over lots of government money to large business to do things!

The problem is that they are far too incompetent and have zero clue about tech, and only understand real estate, that simplest of business that can be executed with mere lizard-brain intelligence.

Tech is also about small startups disrupting large giants, which is completely antithetical to current Republican leadership ideals, where the wealthiest get all gains, regardless of who does the work.

It will take many years of full-on Democratic leadership to reconfigure the Republican Party back to a somewhat innovation-friendly business party. Meanwhile the Democrats, under Biden, were by far some of the most business-friendly politicians we have seen in perhaps a century, spurring massive investment in factories and industry, mostly across red states. But because it's a politically incorrect fact, it never gets reported.

cjbgkagh 5 days ago | parent [-]

It irks me that the current administration points to the steel industry doing well as an example of bringing jobs back to the US. Like great you’ve made an uncompetitive industry more profitable at the expense of every downstream user of that material. Doing the very opposite of what should be done. We’re getting to the point, and have passed it in a few industries, where it’s more expensive to buy raw inputs in the US than refined outputs from China. That is a level of insanity that cannot last.

matwood 5 days ago | parent [-]

And to put some numbers on it, there are ~100k steel jobs in the US. So we have kneecapped a ton of other industries impacting millions all to maybe save 100k jobs.

benreesman 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Seniconductor manufacturing was effectively centrally planned via SEMATEC and before that via de facto stewardship by things like the the Labs and later Intel as a vehicle for national policy.

This neat little dichotomy between "free market capitalism" and "centrally planned socialism" is a cute story but also complete fiction. In "capitalist" countries the government basically always runs R&D during any period of time when the stakes are high, and in "communist" countries there are always markets, and they are always sanctioned to some degree.

All of the foundational progress for American leadership in high technology was centrally planned and administered, all of it one way or another: through ATT, through NASA, through the DoD, through the universities. Value creation occurs under the watchful eye of the DoD.

Once in a while we go on an orgy of extractive wealth transfer like now, instead of creative innovation like usually, and the top industry guys always fuck it up. And on cue, yeah this is going great.

sudofail 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

A lot of countries honestly should be taking this approach. Fabrication is just too important for national security. At least some domestic production is critical.