I think you’re missing the point of the blog post and the point of my grandparent comment, which is that there is a pervasive attitude amongst technologists that “it’s just gonna happen anyway and therefore whether I work on something negative for the world or not makes no difference, and therefore I have no role as an ethical agent.” It’s a way to avoid responsibility and freedom.

We are not discussing the likelihood of some particular scenario based on models and numbers and statistics and predictions by Very Smart Important People.

I agree that "very likely" is not "inevitable". It is possible for the advance of AI to stop, but difficult. I agree that doesn't absolve people of responsibility for what they do. But I disagree with the comparison to religious predestination.

I'm not sure how common that is... I'd guess most who work on it think that there's a positive future with LLMs also. I mean they likely wouldn't say "I work on something negative for the world".