The problem is Lemon Markets[0]

Lemon Markets do not happen because people do not want "peaches". Lemon markets happen because consumers cannot differentiate a lemon from a peach, at least at time of purchase. There can be high demand for peaches, and even producers of peaches. But if customers can't find out if they bought a lemon or peach until they get home and can take a bite, then peaches disappear.

We do not need a crystal ball to see what is going to happen. We've been watching it happen for more than a decade. We churn out shitty code that is poorly cobbled together, begging for the mercy of death. Yet, despite everyone having computers, phones, and using apps and software, how many can tell what is good and bad without careful inspection?

The bitter truth is that lemons are quick and easy to produce while peaches take time. If we split up software development as you propose, then it won't just be the AI coders who are eating lemons. Frankly, it seems that everything is sour these days. Even the most tech illiterate people I know are frustrated at the sour taste. There's demand for peaches, but it's a hard hole to dig ourselves out of. Even harder when building more shovel factories.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons

The culpability we share for "churning out shitty code" is spot-on imo. There's been so much incentive to shipping "good enough", that even the definition of "good enough" has been backsliding. Sometimes even to the point of "whatever we can get away with", in the name of speed of delivery.

That friction has always been there, in my experience. But this is the first time I'm seeing it happening around me. LLM's are so divisive, and yet the more extreme positions on either side seem to be digging their heels in, as if the tech is not in flux.

Maybe we need a little Cave Johnson energy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt6iTwVIiMM