> paying people to have kids is the wrong incentive

I absolutely agree. Childcare is horribly expensive and just easing the burden of that would make parenting far more palatable to those who would otherwise be good parents.

Even the Scandinavian countries with world’s most generous childcare subsidies are nowhere near a replacement total fertility rate (~2.1).

Expecting other societies less egalitarian and less rich than them is pie in the sky thinking.