Since a huge chunk of comp in finance is bonus, especially if you're a rainmaker, I don't see how this is a win.

I don't where HN gets its information about investment banks, but it is wrong much more than 50% of the time. (Dart throwing monkeys could do better, I fear.) This is no longer true for non-FO (front office) head count after 2008. In markets (not investment banking/M&A/IPOs), front office is sales, trading, structuring, and a miniscule number of quants. In 2025, The vast majority of working stiffs at the world's top 15 investment banks are being paid an annual bonus that is max 25% of base salary, but 10-15% is more likely. Also, for most FO, when laid-off or leaving, they start gardening leave on the same day. Also, anyone worth anything (as FO) will negotiate with their next employer to have a guaranteed first year bonus that meets or exceeds their last bonus. For non-FO, they are required to work for their entire notice period.