The usual response applies: if you have profitable trading signals, why would you sell it? Every time you sell a copy, that makes it less effective.

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mempko 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

The market goes up exponentially over time. It's a mathematical certainty. The reason giving away trading signals is even possible is because the market isn't efficient. But not only that, there are forces behind prices beyond just speculation where signals can be correct over the long term. Also it takes a while to understand if particular signals are good outside of backtesting so there is no definitive 'these signals are perfect and everyone will use them'

In other words, markets have varying scales of information and are certaintly not efficient despite what academia has you believe. Trend following works precisely because there can be underlying reasons for the trend, and traders piling on just reinforces that trend. Where profitability of the signal depends finding robust trend changes as early as possible.

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wolfman1 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Most trading signals aim to exploit a secret edge. A temporary market inefficiency. The value is in the secret itself. Once you sell the secret, the small window of opportunity is competed away almost instantly.

Trend based models are different. The "secret" isn't a secret at all. Think of a trend based trading strategy more as a disciplined methodology. Trend based models follow price and attempt to identify as early as possible when an asset flips from bearish to bullish.

Therefore, selling our model wont destroy the underlying trend, especially in highly liquid assets, such as: SPX, BTC, etc.

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bcyn 3 days ago | parent [-]

This doesn't make as much sense as you think it does. If you could predictably trade a flip from bearish to bullish (for example, of course there are other trend-based signals), you would not share that signal because others would overcrowd your trade (by buying/shorting and moving the price more quickly towards the trending direction than you).

A potential argument is that these signals are only applicable to a certain bracket of portfolio sizes (e.g. larger AUM funds would not be able to trade this strategy) -- but you are sharing this with folks presumably in your range of portfolio size.

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wolfman1 3 days ago | parent [-]

Overcrowding an entry on highly liquid assets is something that is so far from reality for our service.

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henning 3 days ago | parent [-]

The more highly liquid an asset, the more efficient it is and the fewer trading opportunities after accounting for transaction costs. In something like the S&P 500, everything is already priced in.

Meme stocks and shitcoins being manipulated by whales are not efficient and also not as liquid.

The larger point remains that none of the above considerations are discussed on this product's page.

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wolfman1 3 days ago | parent [-]

I'm realizing there's a lot of confusion about what trend based models actually are. I was under the assumption the concept was more widely understood, but I'm realizing we need to explain it better.

To be clear, there's nothing new or innovative about a trend based model. It's one of the most commonly used investment strategies by intuitions, etc. It's been widely utilized for far longer than I've been alive.

	▲	bcyn a day ago \| parent [-]
		There's no confusion about the type of edge. Just pointing out that if you are selling an edge rather than trading it yourself, you're either grifting or naive.

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cortesoft 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Usually, the reason is you lack capital to trade on your signals yourself.

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Vaslo 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Seems like you could build the capital fairly quickly if your system works. And you should be able to have people invest in you if you show results.

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deadbabe 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Money now is better than money later. If you have a secret that is guaranteed to make money, but only over the course of several years, you could just sell it now and get that profit today instead of waiting.

The person buying the secret will pay less than the long term profit as a fee for them giving you the money upfront now.

But if you have rights to resell the secret multiple times you will earn money far quicker, perhaps more than the secret’s long term value.

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runako 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

200%/yr starting from $10,000 => still needs a day job for a number of years.

This is why Wall Street is able to hire talented young traders, some of whom will develop profitable systems. Over time, some of them are able to amass enough savings and the track record necessary to get investors. But at t=0, somebody has to pay the rent.

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gaadd33 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

If you can reliably generate 200% a year after fees/taxes/etc, you could just get a bunch of credit cards and use broker margin on top of that. It wouldn't surprise me if you could easily start with 200k at that point. Sure the first year would be rough, like grad student living but you would quickly be in the six figures.

	▲	HenryBemis 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Yes, _but_ (and that is a huge but), I remember some summers ago Erdogan was giving a speech in a village and instead of saying "we have faith in the markets" he said "we have faith in Allah" (not judging, just observing)(it was a time that Turkish Lira was doing very bad, inflation was ruining the country, Erdogan hired his son-in-law to be central banker (or something like that) and that very day Euro took a big dive because of the exposure of Turkish debt, etc etc. Trump (again, not judging, just observing) said "tariffs all around" and markets and currencies crashed a couple of months ago, then recovered, then dropped again, etc. So, "big bets", especially wig margin, require small movements (or small bets with big movements). And getting in debt is never a good idea, because a tweet by Jerom, Kristine, Vladimir, Xi, Putin, Macron, can send you packing and with an extra $200k debt at 20% interest rate, from which th average person will never recover.

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whiplash451 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A margin account would put you on fast track if you are sure about your strategy

	▲	runako 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Yes, but even with a margin account you still need money today and gains in the market take some time to accumulate from a small base.

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selectodude 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

If you returned 200%/yr, you'd be running a fund an multiple times more successful than Renaissance's Medallion fund and would be able to attract outside capital and become a billionaire many times over in maybe five years.

	▲	runako 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Obviously 200% is not realistic. But, entertaining the claim, even if you can do 200% annually, you still have to earn money in the near term unless you have a pot of cash so you can both invest and live.

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cheald 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

If you have genuine reliable alpha, leverage exists. But you'd better make damn sure your edge is as good as you think it is.