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theptip 7 hours ago

No, it’s never going to be precise but it’s important to have a good rough definition.

Can we just use Morris et al and move on with our lives?

Position: Levels of AGI for Operationalizing Progress on the Path to AGI: https://arxiv.org/html/2311.02462v4

There are generational policy and societal shifts that need to be addressed somewhere around true Competent AGI (50% of knowledge work tasks automatable). Just like climate change, we need a shared lexicon to refer to this continuum. You can argue for different values of X but the crucial point is if X% of knowledge work is automated within a decade, then there are obvious risks we need to think about.

So much of the discourse is stuck at “we will never get to X=99” when we could agree to disagree on that and move on to considering the x=25 case. Or predict our timelines for X and then actually be held accountable for our falsifiable predictions, instead of the current vide based discussions.