I agree on the diminishing returns and that the code doesn't cut it on its own. I really haven't noticed a significant shift in quality in a while. I disagree on the productivity though.

Even for something like a script to do some quick debugging or answering a question it's been a huge boon to my productivity. It's made me more ambitious and take on projects I wouldn't have otherwise.

I also don't really believe that workers are currently being replaced by LLMs. I have yet to see a system that comes anywhere close to replacing a worker. I think these layoffs are part of a trend that started before the LLM hype and it's just a convenient narrative. I'm not saying that there will be no job loss as a result of LLMs I'm just not convinced it's happening now.