Diffusion LLMs seem like they could be a huge change

Check this out from yesterday (watch the short video here):

https://simonwillison.net/2025/May/21/gemini-diffusion/

From:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44057820

Even if LLMs never reach AGI, they're good enough to where a lot of very useful tooling can be built on top of/around them. I think of it more as the introduction of computing or the internet.

That said, whether or not being a provider of these services is a profitable endeavor is still unknown. There's a lot of subsidizing going on and some of the lower value uses might fall to the wayside as companies eventually need to make money off this stuff.

I think it's a bit early to say. At least in my domain, the models released this year (Gemini 2.5 Pro, etc). Are crushing models from last year. I would therefore not by any means be ready to call the situation a stall.

Which brings up the question of why AGI is a thing at all. Shouldn't LLMs just be tools to make humans more productive?

Sure, but despite there being a 2.0 release between they didn't even feel the need to release a Pro for it still isn't the kind of GPT 2 -> 3 improvement we were hoping would continue for a bit longer. Companies will continue to release these incremental improvements which are all always neck-and-neck with each other. That's fine and good, just don't inherently expect the versioning to represent the same relative difference instead of the relative release increment.