I've always thought the Moravec/Kurzweil prediction of human level AI around 2029 was reasonable and that was predicted from about 1990 based on extrapolating a log graph and it hasn't really budged. It seems roughly on track.

Progress is patchy - you still can't have a robot come round and make coffee but on more abstract stuff like IQ tests they passed 100 last year and recently got 136 https://cryptoslate.com/openais-o3-scores-136-on-mensa-norwa...

Also give the trucks a chance! The first one with no driver in should be going from Dallas to Houston around now https://www.govtech.com/transportation/what-to-know-as-self-...