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| ▲ | spacebanana7 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Still, their point was directionally correct. London has 1397 electric buses and Moscow has over 2300. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_emission_buses_in_London https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_buses_in_Moscow | | |
| ▲ | kleiba 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Germany has this recurring fixation on hydrogen for whatever reason. Even when Tesla had already long hit the mainstream market, German car manufacturers were still arguing against EVs in favor for hydrogen-powered cars that would theoretically be vastly superior. Well, we all know how that turned out for Mercedes, BMW, and the so on. | | |
| ▲ | atoav 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Reasons I can think of for that fixation are: 1. Germany's existing industrial capacity in terms of machining is a much closer match to hydrogen than to EVs. So in short it is wishful thinking mixed with a kind of self-preservation. 2. There seems to be a (somewhat unfounded) worry about energy storage when it comes to EVs, that many German technologists think is easier to handle and solve with hydrogen. 3. Germans culturally have a slight tendency to be fascinated by intricate and complex systems (which can also be a bad thing, see bureaucracy). Electric vehicles are conceptionally very simple, so the opposite. Hydrogen is a little bit more involved. | | | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Germany has this recurring fixation on hydrogen for whatever reason. Hydrogen would enable a lot of very rich and powerful businesses to just pivot their business model a bit: the fossil fuel industry would have a destination for "grey hydrogen", pipeline owners could repurpose natural gas pipelines and bunkers for hydrogen, you'd still need refineries, tanker trucks to refill gas stations, you'd still need a nationwide network of gas stations in the first place... In contrast, electric cars cut out a lot of the middlemen - once you got the car and a solar panel on your roof, you don't need _any_ of these industries any more. And you can't have that. | |
| ▲ | mmooss 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If people followed that reasoning, there would be few EVs now because EVs had been tried for decades without success; so were airplanes and AI. If people quit as easily as you say hydrogen car manufacturers should, we wouldn't have much of anything. | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Yes - but Hydrogen vehicles have not proven to match or even beat EV's in a lot of key metrics that matter. The biggest one is efficiency. 40% efficient is one figure I saw, versus 80% for EV's. Yes, you can refill quicker, but time to "refuel" EV's is dropping precipitously as well, and it's just all around safer than tanking around highly combustible liquid gas. | | |
| ▲ | praseodym 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > Yes, you can refill quicker Unless the hydrogen fueling nozzle freezes to the car, which is apparently quite common in high humidity weather and/or when multiple cars are fueled consecutively. See e.g. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036031992... | | |
| ▲ | petertodd 4 days ago | parent [-] | | That's just a minor problem, not a fatal flaw. Obviously you can fix that with a small heater for negligible energy cost. | | |
| ▲ | praseodym 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Commercially available solutions seem to use a flow of nitrogen to purge condensation from the nozzle, which is quite a bit more complicated: https://www.weh.com/en_us/general-news/preventing-the-fuelin... | | |
| ▲ | petertodd 3 days ago | parent [-] | | Yes, to comply with paranoid hydrogen safety regulations cheaply. Also, note how the nitrogen is also being used to purge the entire line. Not just keep condensation away. With more engineering work an intrinsically safe PTC heater could be certified and used just fine. |
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| ▲ | Filligree 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Now you have a heater in immediate proximity to hydrogen gas. It’s not impossible, but I think you’re underestimating the complexity of doing that safely. | | |
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| ▲ | lesuorac 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Yes, you can refill quicker, but time to "refuel" EV's is dropping precipitously as well, and it's just all around safer than tanking around highly combustible liquid gas. I always think of I, Robot where the protagonist gets on a motorcycle and immediately their passenger complains about how dangerous gasoline is. While not for everybody, EVs have a really great property of being rechargable without much effort on your part. Just spend ~10 seconds plugging it in at home/work and then ~10 seconds unplugging it before your next time. Compared to waiting 20 minutes in line at Costco Gas to save 1 dollar. | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 3 days ago | parent [-] | | And much cheaper to fill as well. On a pretty efficienct ICE that I had I was averaging about 20p per mile driven. On my EV I'm averaging 2.5p per mile driven. |
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| ▲ | grapesodaaaaa 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Let’s not forget that the highly combustible liquid gas either needs to be stored with complicated cooling or under immense pressure (feel free to disprove me if I haven’t kept up with technology). It can be done safely, but adds a lot of complexity on top of all the complexity needed for ICE engines. Your points are also great. | | |
| ▲ | mbirth 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Add to that the problem of “boil off” / “pressure venting”. There are some cars that empty their hydrogen tanks on their own in about 2 weeks. Just because of this issue. There are new ways to store hydrogen, but these also need external (=from a separate battery) electricity to release it again and the process is slow and doesn’t provide enough amperage, so it can only be used to slowly charge another big battery that is required for these cars to be able to drive. |
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| ▲ | mmooss 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Hydrogen vehicles have not proven to match or even beat EV's in a lot of key metrics that matter Not yet. That is the nature of technological R&D - if we had the answers, we wouldn't be doing R&D. AI before the last decade or so didn't beat other computer technologies in key metrics; should they have stopped developing it? Fusion power doesn't beat fission and other options in key metrics; solar didn't beat other sources in key metrics, including costs, ... - should humanity have stopped developing those things? | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Toyota have been researching hydrogen cars since the early 90's. Unless you can find a way to double their efficiency, and also get hydrogen down to close to 1:1 energy input to output it's just not an efficienct use of electricity. | | |
| ▲ | mmooss 2 days ago | parent [-] | | EVs were researched for decades before they came to fruition. That's the nature of research. |
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| ▲ | philwelch 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It's not really fair to compare the efficiency numbers directly that way. The efficiency for hydrogen is measured from the hydrogen fuel directly, but the efficiency of the EV is measured from the wall. In reality, generating electricity is about 40% efficient at best. Yes, there's also an efficiency cost to refining the hydrogen, but if we compare apples to apples and take a ton of LNG and use it to power an EV versus a hydrogen car, I doubt the EV is going to get more milage. | | |
| ▲ | pipodeclown 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Sure but you should be comparing the goal end state, a world in which out energy consumption and generation is green, that's the whole point of our move to bev's and hydrogen. So you should be comparing energy generation by green means to power a BEV or using green energy to produce hydrogen to power a hydrogen car. In that world the whole energy production and consumption chain is about 3x as efficient for BEV, which in my mind means there is no way hydrogen is going to be competitive and we shouldn't waste valuable resources on persuing it. | |
| ▲ | philjohn 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Hydrogen that doesn't come from the natural gas industry requires that very same electricity to be extracted from water - so they're operating from the same baseline in my efficiency calculations. | | |
| ▲ | philwelch 3 days ago | parent [-] | | But the electricity is generated by burning natural gas. | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Not 100%. A lot in the US, for sure, less in the EU where renewables are a much larger part of the grid, as is Nuclear (thanks to interconnects from France). And if we work at it that number might go the same way as Coal has within our lifetimes. |
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| ▲ | nautilius 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Efficiency is the standard red herring of the battery crowd - if efficiency was the prime motivation, we would all be driving bicycles and SUV or sportscars would not exist. What are your other metrics? It’s an electric drivetrain with all advantages, but with the range of a gasoline car. Refueling cNG or LNG is standard in Europe, LH2 works just fine. Google “burning Tesla” for that ridiculous take on why batteries would be inherently safe. | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Except it's efficiency for the same class of vehicles we're talking about, so a bike is an apples to oranges comparison. Proton Exchange Membrane is 40-45% efficient. Generating hydrogen from electricity is 70% efficient - meaning for a kWh of input electricity you get 3x the motive power from a BEV. Then rolling out a refuelling network, with the high pressure tanks and expensive delivery mechanism, will cost far more than installing EV chargers - and that's before we even get onto the CURRENT penetration of EV chargers vs Hydrogen filling stations today (16 in the UK, 54 in the ENTIRE US, and not growing). Hydrogen might be the solution to emissions from haulage, but BEV's are more than good enough compared to the ICE cars they're replacing for 99.9% of motorists needs. Yes, I'm ignoring the "I need to drive 1000 miles without stopping for fuel, rest, using the bathroom, come back when an EV can do THAT" people. And on burning EV's, they catch fire at rates 20x lower than ICE cars, and LFP chemistry is far more resistant to thermal runaway. Now lets talk cost - over the life of the car the BEV will be cheaper to run. Filling a Mirai in the UK will cost you around £90 for 400 miles of range. Charging my EV6 from 0 to 100 will cost me £5.50 for 300 miles of range. We're talking near orders of magnitude difference in cost per mile here - it's almost an unfair advantage that you can charge an EV at home off peak for next to nothing. | |
| ▲ | crote 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Range is almost entirely irrelevant. The average commute distance is 16 miles, and commutes over 50 miles are quite rare. This means a car with a range of 100 miles would cover the vast majority of use cases. Add some buffer for emergencies and cold weather, and even the 150-mile-range Nissan Leaf is more than enough. You could also look at once-a-year road trips, of course: a range of 250 to 300 miles is becoming quite common for mid-level SUVs. With current technologies that means a charging session of 30 minutes or so every 3.5 to 4 hours - and it's only getting better. For context, the EU-based commercial truckers have a 45-minute break every 4.5 hours, because non-stop driving for even longer than that poses a safety risk. BEVs aren't stuck in the 1990s anymore. Their range has significantly improved over the 60-mile range of the GM EV1. If 2025 BEV range is an issue for you, you are the outlier. | |
| ▲ | pipodeclown 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Efficiency doesn't matter when you're literally pumping energetic liquid from the ground. It does matter when you need to build 150% more solar panels to produce the energy to create your energetic liquid/gas. | | |
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| ▲ | filmor 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | How is that efficiency calculated, respectively? | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 4 days ago | parent [-] | | https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/fuel-cell-e... I believe all Hydrogen vehicles are using proton exchange membranes still, which have roughly 40-50% efficiency. And that's before you take into account that even the most cutting edge hydrogen refining processes are around 70% efficient. So 1kWh of energy input (electricity) will net you 3X the motive power when used directly in a BEV than first being coverted to hydrogen, and then converted back into electricity.[1] [1] 0.5*0.7 = 0.35. | | |
| ▲ | marcosdumay 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | I don't think any hydrogen vehicle in actual use has a fuel cell (and if there's any, it's an incredibly rare exception). They are all internal combustion engines. Proton exchange membranes are very unreliable and expensive. They are also not power-dense, one that powers a bus will be very large. | | |
| ▲ | ch_sm 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | It‘s actually the opposite: some hydrogen cars that use combustion exist, but they are really, really rare. Almost all hydrogen cars that are road legal use a fuel cell in combination with BEV parts to smooth out/extend power delivery. | |
| ▲ | pipodeclown 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | That is completely incorrect, it is the opposite. |
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| ▲ | fluidcruft 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | BEVs aren't 100% efficient though so it's closer to 2x rather than 3x. | | |
| ▲ | philjohn 4 days ago | parent [-] | | I’ve also gone for the max efficiency figures for the Hydrogen car. And that’s before we get to the fuel costs - £90 to go 400 miles in a Mirai, versus £5.50 to go 300 in an EV6. |
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| ▲ | ReptileMan 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | EV has been tried with great success since the moment the electric motor was invented. Trams, metros, trolleybuses. The bottleneck for free range was always the battery - which was solved by the mobile phones. The electronics industry had the money to invest into batteries because of the premium that people were willing to pay for even minor battery improvements. And the economy of scale pushed it down to where a battery pack was costing less than the GDP of Australia and so viable in a car. Hydrogen cars will become available only when hydrogen is used as a temporary storage for renewable energy. But probably even there converting it to electricity in industrial scale fuel cell will make more sense. | | |
| ▲ | masklinn 4 days ago | parent [-] | | > The bottleneck for free range was always the battery - which was solved by the mobile phones. I wouldn't say solved here. Significantly improved into usability yes, but there are still big issues with batteries: - their low energy density means it's essentially impossible to have a long range in a small car, every long range EV is necessarily quite large, yet still has a shorter range than a city car - specific energy remains meh, contributing to weight inflation (though by no means the only factor here) - low temperature performance remains dreary and something you have to manage (and possibly hack / work around e.g. if your car only does automatic battery conditioning) - while I think fast charge times are a bit overblown as a single driver on long trips (because stretching / resting every 2-3 hours is a good idea anyway), if you have relief drivers and can relay they're a significant impediment Not that I think hydrogen has any future mind. But EVs do have a lot of drawbacks. And the amount of power you need available to charge a bus fleet in reasonable time is significant if you do pure battery. |
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| ▲ | addicted 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | This is true but this analysis fails to consider why hydrogen receives so much interest, because similar reasoning could indicate we should be spending more on every other potential fuel source, including biofuels, and maybe running engines on cellulose. And the fact that hydrogen is most popular in Germany and Japan should provide a clue. These are countries with well established ICE car industries and therefore shifting to hydrogen provides the least disruption when it comes to their car manufacturing as well as infrastructure. The disproportionately high interest in hydrogen is likely not being driven because of a belief in its future success, but likely more as a hope to continuing the status quo. | |
| ▲ | kleiba 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Right. But at some point, you should acknowledge reality. That's why I'm not currently trying to collect VC money for a new start-up on BetaMax recording technology. |
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| ▲ | 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | mmooss 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Nobody doubts EVs are more popular now. You should see the numbers for ICE buses too. The discussion is about the future. | | |
| ▲ | marcosdumay 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Do you expect any problem to appear for batteries at the next century or so? What king of change do you expect on the future for it to not repeat the lessons we learned at the present? Fossil fuels are on the way out because we do expect problems. Do you have something similar for EVs? | | |
| ▲ | mmooss 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Efficiency is always a problem. EVs wouldn't exist if they weren't more efficient than ICE vehicles, but there is still a cost to EVs - power generation, manufacturing, waste .... A new technology could increase efficiency. |
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| ▲ | stevesimmons 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | And Minsk in Belarus has more than 1000 electric buses, of which 150 to 180 are powered by supercapacitors rather than batteries! |
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| ▲ | rsynnott 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Ah, I was going on the table in the article, which has Cologne at 35; it seem to be out of date, though. | |
| ▲ | nopelynopington 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | There's a very large drop off after that one example |
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| ▲ | crote 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Hybrids are attractive when a short battery range is enough for daily use but you still do semi-frequent long-range driving. Rather than hauling around a heavy and expensive XL battery pack on your daily commute you haul around a tiny combustion engine. It's a great solution for people with range anxiety. Buses have a completely different use case. They drive a well-known distance, and every day is practically identical. It is fairly easy to scale its battery pack to closely match the actual range needed. Running a true long-distance route like a Greyhound or Flixbus, which physically can't be battery-based yet? Just stick to diesel for now. | | |
| ▲ | laurencerowe 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Hybrid buses were a huge win around cities before fully electric became viable and I expect they will continue to be important for rural routes. Buses stop frequently so regenerative breaking is meaningful and crucially they avoid the horrible cloud of diesel particulates as they pull off. It was really noticeable as a cyclist. About 40% co2 savings over diesel in London. |
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| ▲ | m463 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I wonder if diesel electric locomotives are efficient at all. I think the electric is for infinite torque to get lots and lots of cars moving. But to slow down, "electric" brakes are to bleed off power into resistor banks, not re-capture the electricity. Meanwhile an electric bus actually has to be efficient, which means batteries and regenerative braking. | | |
| ▲ | hakfoo 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | As I understand it, straight electric locomotives would use the 'dynamic' braking to send current back up the wires. Apparently this would make for entertaining economics-- a section of the rail network where most of the tonnage went downhill could produce a net negative power bill. With diesel-electrics, there was nowhere to the braking power, so resistor grids were the order of the day. I wonder if it would be possible or worthwhile to outfit them with battery tenders to recapture the current with modern batteries and power-management circuitry. | | |
| ▲ | kalleboo 4 days ago | parent [-] | | An example of such a line is in Sweden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Ore_Line > From Riksgränsen on the national border to the Port of Narvik, the trains use only a fifth of the power they regenerate. The regenerated energy is sufficient to power the empty trains back up to the national border. | | |
| ▲ | rstuart4133 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Similar thing happens in Australia: https://www.jalopnik.com/these-electric-trains-never-need-re... The twist: these trains aren't connected to the grid. They use regenerative braking to charge batteries when carting ore to the coast, and the batteries power the trip back to the mine. | | |
| ▲ | masklinn 4 days ago | parent [-] | | IIRC there are mine trucks set up similarly in some locations, they're loaded at the top, regen downhill, and that's sufficient to power them back up the hill when empty. |
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| ▲ | rsynnott 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Some diesel electric trains now have large batteries and can recapture the braking power. Though this is seen as a bonus; the primary goal of the batteries is generally to be able to switch off the engines in station to reduce local diesel emissions. | |
| ▲ | nine_k 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | A diesel electric locomotive has no serious batteries, and no room for enough batteries to consume the energy of slowing down a train. At least it can dump it as heat without also producing fine dust, like mechanical brakes do. | | |
| ▲ | hylaride 4 days ago | parent [-] | | They can (and do) have room if they're designed from the ground up for it. The engines for diesel electric trains are so large because they need to be sized to drive power for peak energy (usually accelerating and hills). If the energy can be stored, the engines for hybrid locomotives themselves can (and are) smaller. So far you're only seeing hybrid locomotives for trains that stop/start a lot (shunting trains and passenger rail). The cutover for freight will likely take decades because A) locomotive lifetimes are measured in decades and B) longer range freight usually has less stop/start, making it's economical delta less. | | |
| ▲ | foobarian 4 days ago | parent [-] | | I would imagine long range freight would be more likely to have long stretches of uphill grade which would mess with the minimum battery size | | |
| ▲ | hylaride 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Yeah, that could be a problem. Even modern trains often now have multiple locomotives (including in the middle of train sets) to deal with range/weight, so who knows. There’s no reason hybrid trains can’t have multiple locomotives or battery bank-cars for those situations. As I mentioned above, the freight lines are very conservative with new tech and amortize equipment over decades (often to the point where many rail cars are unsafe, especially outdated tank cars), so even if it exists we won’t see it in practice for awhile yet. |
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| ▲ | morsch 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | On the other hand, pure electric trains seemingly have had regenerative braking for a hundred years. |
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| ▲ | rsynnott 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | I mean, hybrid buses are common. Dublin Bus’s fleet is about 900 conventional diesel, 300 plug-in hybrid, a trivial number of light hybrid (they never committed to these), and 150 electric. But hybrid buses also don’t seem to have a future (at least as urban buses); at least here the plan is to buy no more diesel or hybrid buses; the current fleet will age out. |
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