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Not really. We’re definitely in the incremental improvement stage at this point. Certainly no indication that progress is “accelerating”.

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Workaccount2 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Integration is accelerating rapidly. Even if model development froze today, we would still probably have ~5 years of adoption and integration before it started to level off.

	▲	littlestymaar 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		You are both correct. It feels like the tech itself is kinda plateauing but it's still massively under-used. It will take a decade or more before the deployment starts slowing down.

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adncors 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But we're seeing incremental improvements every two months, so...

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nwienert 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

ChatGPT 3 : iPhone 1

A bunch of models later, we're about on the iPhone 4-5 now. Feels about right.

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int_19h 3 days ago | parent [-]

It's more like GPT-3 is the Manchester Baby, and we're somewhere around IBM 700 series right now. Still a long way to go to iPhone, as much as the industry likes to pretend otherwise.

	▲	nwienert 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Both were big consumer commercial breakouts and far better than predecessors. And several years later both see only iterative improvements. Neither apply to your analogy.