> People are default overconfident with their estimated error bars.

You say this but yet roughly in a top level comment mentions people keep their error bars too close.

Sorry, my comment was phrased confusingly.

Being overconfident with error bars means placing them too close to the point estimation, i.e. the error bars are too narrow.

They are meaning the same thing. The original comment pointed out that people’s qualitative description and mental model of the 95% interval means they are overconfident… they think 95 means ‘pretty sure I’m right’ rather than ‘it would be surprising to be wrong’