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This has nothing to do with Trump beyond the fact that his plans could hasten how quickly this blows up. Bond rates were already going up before the election, the bond market was already nervous. Your indication that the world isn’t starting to have doubts isn’t born out by the bond market rates.

> And as this chart says, it's not all owned by "Chaina"

I never said that. China has been rolling US debt off of their books for a decade now and moving towards BRICS.

If we make this a partisan issue, which you appear to be, we won’t solve this problem. That would be a catastrophic mistake.

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amanaplanacanal 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Are you saying that hastening the catastrophe is the right move?

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jack_h 5 days ago | parent [-]

No.

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amanaplanacanal 5 days ago | parent [-]

Ok. You never know what you are going to hear on HN :)

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elcritch 5 days ago | parent [-]

Fine I’ll oblige. :P

I believe hastening it (momentarily) has been good. Well the looming debt issue as I understand this subthread to be about.

Like a patient getting indigestion and goes to the ER thinking it's a heat attack, only to find it’s not but his cholesterol and BP is through the roof and he needs blood pressure meds asap.

Trumps tactics has caused much more attention on the matter. Tariffs can be reduced, etc, but hopefully bringing a wake up call will help avoid catastrophe.

No idea if that was part of Trumps plan or just bumbling, but I believe it’ll be good long term.

I’ve been reading lots of dystopian sci-fi fearing hyperinflation in the near future in the US and then Europe. Now it seems people are taking it a bit more seriously. Even this comment chain shows that.

Then again I’m also encouraged by Argentina’s response after 70-80 years of hyperinflation and stagnation. Javier Milei‘s policies appear to be working contrary to the prediction of most everyone beforehand.

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amanaplanacanal 4 days ago | parent [-]

People have been predicting catastrophe since the 70s. Same with social security. Somehow we keep muddling along.

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elcritch 4 days ago | parent [-]

That attitude sounds like a college grad with a fresh credit card they keep spending on.

Their parents warn them that if they keep spending on it there will be major issues. But hey, they still have like $10k of credit and they can get another card! They’re just old and predicting catastrophe all the time.

Until one day they they have no more credit left and all their income goes to paying credit card interest not even paying off the debt.

In the 70s the debt was negligible. Now the debt is nearing 100% of the US GDP [1]. Historically once countries reach 120% hyperinflation occurs. The dollar being the global reserve currency buffers it a bit but not indefinitely.

1: https://econofact.org/why-is-the-u-s-debt-expected-to-keep-g...

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amanaplanacanal 4 days ago | parent [-]

50 years is not "a fresh credit card". If someone predicts something and 50 years later it hasn't happened, I think it's time to re-examine their assumptions

	▲	elcritch 4 days ago \| parent [-]
		And what were they predicting? Most reasonable predictions were that once the GDP to debt ratio reaches a certain point that’s when issues arise. It’s just now nearing that 100% of GDP mark. Obviously predictions on a national scale can take decades. The “fresh credit card” was handed out in the 70’s. Just because climate change hasn’t ended the world yet in 50 years doesn’t mean it’s not a serious threat.

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JumpCrisscross 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Bond rates were already going up before the election

Treasuries behaving like a risk asset is 100% Trump. And it has nothing to do with him blowing out our deficit, it's 100% about stagflation and money markets.

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vkou 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Bond rates were already going up before the election,

Do you think the fact that there was a 40-70% (and I'm being optimistic, here) chance that the election would elect Trump [1] had anything at all to do with that?

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[1] Who made his plans for destroying both the American hegemony and global trade, and its domestic economy quite clear.