I wonder if the analogy might be more like comparing an apple tree evolving in a forest vs breeding varieties of apples on a farm.

Even if you pick a state, science in any single state has still gotten federal funding and had the ability to easily cross-pollinate with other very good researchers across state boarders. The federal funding then gets redirected to areas of success and the flywheel starts.

That's harder on the scale of a small country.

I don’t disagree which is why I encourage comparing the EU to the US as a whole.