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wrobelda a day ago

I mean… The AI?

thesuitonym 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Consider that nobody ever sat in countless meetings asking "How can we use the PC?" They either saw the vision and went for it, or eventually ran up against the limitations of working without a PC and bought in.

hnuser123456 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Well, apparently, the guys in Xerox did sit in meetings not knowing what to do, until Steve Jobs visited PARC and saw what was possible.

kragen 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Actually, there was about a 15-year period where many people didn't think PCs were good for anything, because they had access to much better (shared) computers. That's the context where http://catb.org/jargon/html/B/bitty-box.html comes from. See also http://canonical.org/~kragen/tao-of-programming.html#book8. Throughout the 01980s PC Magazine worked hard to convince business decisionmakers that IBM PCs weren't merely game machines; if you look at old issues you'll see that computer games were completely missing from the abundant advertisements in the magazine, presumably due to an explicit policy decision.

I personally encountered people arguing that using PCs (as opposed to VAXen or mainframes) was a waste of time as late as 01992. And I actually even sort of joined them; although I'd been using PCs since before the IBM PC, once I got access to the internet in 01992, I pretty much stopped using PCs as anything but a terminal or a game machine for years, spending virtually 100% of my computer time on VMS or Ultrix. When I was using PCs again, it was because I could run BSD/386 and Linux on them, in 01994.

(Maybe you'd assume from my own story of enthusiastic adoption that "nobody ever sat in countless meetings asking[,] "How can we use the internet?"', but if so, you'd be extremely wrong. In 01992 and even in 01994 there were lots of people who thought the internet was useless or a fad. Bill Gates's The Road Ahead, published November 01995, barely mentioned the internet, instead treating it as a sort of failed experiment that would be supplanted by the Information Superhighway. Metcalfe predicted in 01996 that it would collapse. David Isenberg was still arguing against "Bellheads" and their "Advanced Intelligent Network" in 01997: https://isen.com/stupid.html)

It can be easy looking back in retrospect to oversimplify events like these with the benefit of hindsight, imagining that the things that seem obvious now were obvious then. But not only weren't they obvious—in many cases, they could have turned out differently. I think it was Alan Kay that argued that, without the invention of the sort of graphical user interface used by most non-cellphone personal computers today, the personal computer as we know it never would have become a mass-market phenomenon (though video game consoles were) and therefore Moore's Law would have stalled out decades ago. I'm not sure he was right, but it seems like a plausible alternate history to me.

Of course, there were "killer apps" as early as VisiCalc for the Apple ][. Accountants and corporate executives were willing to read through the manual and take the time to learn how to use it, because it was such a powerful tool for what they were doing. But it was designed for specialists; it's not a UI that rewards casual use the way Excel or MacPaint or NCSA Mosaic is. Without the GUI, or if the GUI had come much later, plausibly personal computers would have remained a niche hobbyist thing for much longer, while somebody like Nintendo would have locked down the unwashed-masses platform—as we now see happening with Android. And (maybe this is obvious) that would have made it immensely less useful.

jonathanlydall 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I offer this as constructive feedback, but I found your highly unusual style of adding a zero in front of all your years was very distracting while I was reading your comment, in a sense it “derailed my parsing” of what you were trying to say.

Keep in mind that persevering with this style in your writing may mostly serve to detract from what you’re actually trying to communicate to others.

kragen an hour ago | parent [-]

Yeah, if you deliver a history lesson while wearing a mohawk, there are always certain people who will only remember the mohawk, no matter how good the history lesson was. Some places, they'll even beat you up for the mohawk.

I'm perfectly happy to deny those people the perhaps-dubious benefit of my viewpoint. I'm sharing knowledge, not making a sales pitch, and I'm not especially worried about getting beaten up anymore.

Izikiel43 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

That came out of millions of dollars and man hours of investment by Google and OpenAi.

VS

Some college students selling software they didn't have and getting it ready from 0 to sellable in 2 months which led to a behemoth that still innovates to this day.

jonas21 a day ago | parent [-]

It doesn't sound that different from Alex Krizhevsky training AlexNet on a pair of gaming GPUs in his bedroom, winning ImageNet, and launching the current wave of deep learning / AI.

safety1st 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The big difference is that Bill's dad was one of the best corporate lawyers in America. Microsoft might not have amounted to much if they hadn't struck some extraordinarily prescient licensing deals at the right time and place.

18 hours ago | parent | next [-]
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anovikov 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

No difference really, just google who Bill Gates' mom was and how he got the IBM DOS deal... It wasn't BASIC that made MS big, it was DOS.

21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
Izikiel43 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Great point, I was thinking more on the Transformer architecture, but I stand corrected.

Google started similarly with PageRank as far as I remember.

musicale 21 hours ago | parent [-]

Grad students, but yeah. CUDA was also basically invented by a grad student.

Many undergrad examples as well in the web era, from Excite to Facebook to Snapchat.

(Note the unanticipated consequences aren't always good.)