That's the problem. The new norm will be 10x of pre-AI productivity, nobody will be able justify hand-writing code. And until the quality bar of LLM's/their successors get much better (see e.g. comments above looking at the details in the examples given), you'll get accumulation of errors that are higher than what decent programmers get. With higher LOC and more uninspected complexity, you'll get significantly lower quality overall. The coming wave of AI-coded bugs will be fun for all. GOTO FAIL;

After spending a week coding exclusively with AI assistants, I got functional results but was alarmed by the code quality. I discovered that I didn't actually save much time, and the generated code was so complex and unfamiliar that I was scared to modify it. I still use Copilot and Claude and would say I'm able to work through problems 2-3x faster than I would be without AI but I wouldn't say I get a 10x improvement.

My projects are much more complex than standard CRUD applications. If you're building simple back-office CRUD apps, you might see a 10x productivity improvement with AI, but that hasn't been my experience with more complex work.