Why do you believe that?

The lowest estimations of how much compute our brain represents was already achieved with the last chip from Nvidia (Blackwell).

The newest gpu cluster from Google, Microsoft, Facebook, iax, and co have added so crazy much compute it's absurd.

>I'm not convinced that AI will ever be good enough to think independently a

and

>Why do you believe that?

What takes less effort, time to deploy, and cost? I mean there is at least some probability we kill ourselves off with dangerous semi-thinking war machines leading to theater scale wars to the point society falls apart and we don't have the expensive infrastructure to make AI as envisioned in the future.

With that said, I'm in the camp that we can create AGI as nature was able to with a random walk, we'll be able to reproduce it with intelligent design.

If you bake the model onto the chip itself, which is what should be happening for local LLMs once a good enough one is trained eventually, you’ll be looking at orders of magnitude reduction in power consumption at constant inference speed.