We don't have a complete enough theory of neuroscience to conclude that much of human "reasoning" is not "algorithmic pattern matching mixed with statistical likelihoods of success".

Regardless of how it models intelligence, why is it not AI? Do you mean it is not AGI? A system that can take a piece of text as input and output a reasonable response is obviously exhibiting some form of intelligence, regardless of the internal workings.

I always wonder where people get their confidence from. We know so little about our own cognition, what makes us tick, how consciousness emerges, how about thought processes actually fundamentally work. We don't even know why we dream. Yet people proclaim loudly that X clearly isn't intelligent. Ok, but based on what?

It’s easy to attribute intelligence these systems. They have a flexibility and unpredictability that hasn't typically been associated with computers, but it all rests on (relatively) simple mathematics. We know this is true. We also know that means it has limitations and can't actually reason information. The corpus of work is huge - and that allows the results to be pretty striking - but once you do hit a corner with any of this tech, it can't simply reason about the unknown. If its not in the training data - or the training data is outdated - it will not be able to course correct at all. Thus, it lacks reasoning capability, which is a fundamental attribute of any form of intelligence.