What is this, some OpenAI employee fan fiction? Did Sam himself write this?

OpenAI models are not even SOTA, except that new-ish style transfer / illustration thing that made all us living in Ghibli world for a few days. R1 is _better_ than o1, and open-weights. GPT-4.5 is disappointing, except for a few narrow areas where it excels. DeepResearch is impressive though, but the moat is in tight web search / Google Scholar search integration, not weights. So far, I'd bet on open models or maybe Anthropic, as Claude 3.7 is the current SOTA for most tasks.

As of the timeline, this is _pessimistic_. I already write 90% code with Claude, so are most of my colleagues. Yes, it does errors, and overdoes things. Just like a regular human middle-stage software engineer.

Also fun that this assumes relatively stable politics in the US and relatively functioning world economy, which I think is crazy optimistic to rely on these days.

Also, superpersuasion _already works_, this is what I am researching and testing. It is not autonomous, it is human-assisted by now, but it is a superpower for those who have it, and it explains some of the things happening with the world right now.

> superpersuasion _already works_

Is this demonstrated in any public research? Unless you just mean something like "good at persuading" -- which is different from my understanding of the term -- I find this hard to believe.

The story isn't about OpenAI, they say the company could be Xai, Anthropic, Google, or another.