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saghm 2 days ago

> The issue was interest rates. Money was free in Feb 2022; the interest rate was literally 0%, and so any cash-generating investment at all is profitable. Fed started raising rates in Apr 2022, at which point leaders started freaking out because they know what higher rates mean, and by Jun 2022 the Fed was raising them in 0.75% increments, which was unheard of in modern economics. By Jan 2023 the rate was 4.5%, which meant that every investment that generates an internal rate of return between 0% and 4.5% is unprofitable.

"Unheard of in modern economics" is carrying quite a lot of weight there. The last time the rates were increased by 0.75% was 1994, and while that's not recent, it's pretty silly to imply that CEOs should be making long-term investments assuming that it would be literally unprecedented for that to happen. Interest rates have changed only a few dozen times _at all_ since then, so yes, they haven't been increased by that much recently, but there's never going to be enough of a sample size over a period of a couple decades that it would be reasonable to assume a precedent that will never be broken.

The crux of your argument seems to be that because the interest rates happen to be set a certain way at a certain time, it would be irrational not to make decisions based on how profitable they'd be at that exact moment in time. The problem with this line of thinking is that plenty of investments are only realized over long enough period of time that by your own admission, people can't possibly react fast enough to avoid those turning into a loss. My question is, why put yourself in a position where you can't adapt fast enough in the first place? The way interest rates are set should not be news to the people making these decisions in companies, so it's not crazy to expect that maybe the people who are betting their company's success on something from less than three decades before being "unprecedented in modern economics" could think at least _a little_ longer term than "literally anything is profitable in this exact moment, so there's no need to think about what might come next".

nostrademons a day ago | parent [-]

Because they are publicly traded and subject to lots and lots of checks on corporate governance. The CEO actually didn't want to lay people off (and did a shit-poor job of it when he did). He was getting pressure from the board, who in turn was getting pressure from a lot of activist hedge funds.

Small-fry who operate secretly are able to take the long view and enrich themselves off the masses' stupidity. CEOs of a multi-trillion-$ company that is ~10% of the retirement portfolio of every American are not. At that level you have to go with the market consensus, because you will be ousted and deemed not a fit steward of the enterprise that you are entrusted with otherwise.

saghm 21 hours ago | parent [-]

> Small-fry who operate secretly are able to take the long view and enrich themselves off the masses' stupidity. CEOs of a multi-trillion-$ company that is ~10% of the retirement portfolio of every American are not.

From my math, you're off by several orders of magnitude, unless somehow we're not talking about Automattic anymore.

telotortium 15 hours ago | parent [-]

He's a Googler, he's talking about Google.