It's funny, I see myself as basically just a pretty unabashed AI believer, but when I look at your predictions, I don't really have any core disagreements.

I know you as like the #1 AI skeptic (no offense), but like when I see points like "16. Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.", that's something that seems OPTIMISTIC about AI capabilities to me. 5% of all jobs being automated would be HUGE, and it's something that we're up in the air about.

Same with "AI “Agents” will be endlessly hyped throughout 2025 but far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases." - even the very existence of agents who are reliable in very narrow use cases is crazy impressive! When I was in college 5 years ago for Computer Science, this would sound like something that would take a decade of work for one giant tech conglomerate for ONE agentic task. Now its like a year off for one less giant tech conglomerate, for many possible agentic tasks.

So I guess it's just a matter of perspective of how impressive you see or don't see these advances.

I will say, I do disagree with your comment sentiment right here where you say "Ask yourself how much has really changed in the intervening year?".

I think the o1 paradigm has been crazy impressive. There was much debate over whether scaling up models would be enough. But now we have an entirely new system which has unlocked crazy reasoning capabilities.