>Reasoning LLMs getting better at ARC-AGI prove...

Even if true, it wouldn't be dispositive WRT my question, but...

1. Strictly speaking, LLMs themselves aren't capable of reasoning, by definition. Without external techniques, they are only capable of simulating reasoning, and so exhibiting reasoning-like behavior.

2. It's known that at least some up to most progress on the test has been the result of specific tuning for the test ("cheating") versus any emergent AGI. [0]

>It's never "pure scaling"

Oh, but it was. There's absolutely been a focus on pure scaling as the proposal for significant progress and some prominent proponents have had to walk back their expectations/claims.

I think there's a little bit of revisionism going on, as they want past claims to be quickly forgotten. The interesting part is that the scaling mantra is starting anew with the new reasoning techniques.

[0] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KHCyituifsHFbZoAC/arc-agi-is...