As a European, the sad reality is that I see parallels with the late-stage Soviet Union and its satellite states.

NOT when it comes to the level of violence and repression or quality of living. Those two things are world-class.

But in the sense that there's a more or less unelected political establishment that's

a) Recursive: It does things only to show them off to itself.

b) Not exposed to real-world consequences.

c) Has a non-falsifiable pretense to validate whatever they do and caution against undoing whatever it is. For the soviets, it was anti-capitalism. For the EU it's some notion of safety or sustainability.

d) Inadvertently benefits itself and other elites and harms the people they pretend to protect.

My hope is that as a democratic institution, the EU is capable of reform.

Yeah you are right there is probably no need to look very far ...

Now what worry me is from I understand of the collapse of the Soviet Union (but I might be very wrong) is they kind let things happen and was less aggressive by the end.

On the contrary the EC is now consolidating power rapidly and are getting very aggressive.

As someone who grew up in late-stage Soviet Union nope. Not even close.