You don't know the elasticity of the market. I can imagine restaurants, food producers and consumers are very eager to get their weekly box of eggs. So even a 5% drop can cause a price jump that's way more.

Actually we do sort of know from the 2014-15 avian flu. In the 2014-15 avian flu, a 12 percent decrease of egg-laying hens was accompanied by a 220% price increase in 2014-15:

- https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-... - https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/06/economic-implicati...

Compare that to the current epidemic in which a 5 percent decrease of egg-laying hens is accompanied by a 600%+ price increase.