Here is my prediction...I know nobody asked for it :-) But they are only fun if you make them before the events...A massive, unpriced risk looms over financial markets... Its scale defies prediction.

The current administration’s safeguards are faltering, running like a government still in FSD beta. With U.S. debt dismissed as “just debt,” inflationary tariffs in play, and an emergency Fed rate hike imminent, shockwaves are inevitable.

Deficit panic may soon lead to manipulated figures and a narrative bent to suit unstable agendas. The bond market’s credibility will collapse, making the Liz Truss debacle seem trivial compared to the turmoil expected over the next two years.

Even the most sophisticated hedge funds and quants can’t quantify an administration gone off the rails... But just look at the current price of gold...

The narrative already started: "Trump says US may have less debt than thought because of fraud - Trump says some Treasury payments might 'not count'" - https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-says-us-might-have-...

"The World’s Most Important Market Sends a Warning" - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-18/the-wo...

> Trump says US may have less debt than thought because of fraud - Trump says some Treasury payments might 'not count'

Ugh, is that different words for "we ain't paying this because we say it's fraud"?

Yes, the real check on Trump isn't congress or the courts any more, it is the bond markets. It they get scared, he is in big trouble.