I mean, yes. The total addressable market for some ideas is larger than others. But realistically, you have no clue what percentage of that market you'll be able to capture. You can guess, but that guess has a lot of uncertainty.

>Some people's entire jobs is to find a track them (whole VC industry)

I mentioned this. What percentage of companies that a VC invests in actually go big?

I'm not denying that VC's are great at their jobs. But I'm pointing out that the best of the best at this have ~5% of the companies make more than a 3x return. 50% lose money.