I don’t think it’s a binary thing that you can just pick. I think you need to have experience to know what the big ideas are for an industry - especially now that the low-hanging web 2.0 ideas seem to be pretty well picked through.

You mention Zuckerberg - even Facebook was made through having experience in the right market and taking an existing product to the next level, and probably a bunch of iteration along the way.

People forget that FB started small. It started as a webified version of the print Face Book for Harvard students. It grew incrementally from there.

Microsoft started as a BASIC interpreter for 8bit microcomputers. MSDOS was a re-branding of QDOS as in quick-n-dirty-OS.