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philwelch 3 hours ago

China still has an amphib fleet, and there are reasons to use amphibs for at least the initial forced entry operation, but once you have a beachhead the dual use ROROs are a good way to sustain and reinforce the landing force without needing to capture or build a port facility.

And it’s not like the amphibs are only useful for Taiwan; there are plenty of disputed islands in the South China Sea worth fighting over.

maxglute 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Specialized pieces of amphib equipment for initial landing, but bulk of sealift is going to be done via commercial ships / RO/ROs. Likely down to 100,000s of fishing boats / commercial vessels to distribute survivability for a reverse dunkirk. Point is PLAN never had intention to build out enough gray hulls to ferry 100,000s men + equipment, so analysts/arguments fixating on PRC _military_ sealift readiness needs to recalibrate on what % of sealift work will actually be done by military procured hulls. My guess is... very minor %, and a shockingly many of commercial ships will get drafted / voluntold to assist with sealift.

SCS islands are too small to need amphib. Like even largest Taiping island is basically just a 1km long airstrip. LHD + paratroopers is enough. Maybe for Ryukyus if things get really spicy.