Think in systems. Yes, it is going to take some time to continue to deploy clean energy globally to meet total human energy consumption. But, as we hit economic inflection points, that will rapidly force coal and fossil gas out of the mix (unless someone with deep pockets is willing to light fiat on fire to keep uneconomic generation online). Once that fossil generation is demolished, it will be unlikely it comes back, locking in a clean path forward.

Pakistan comes to mind, where so much solar is coming online from individuals and businesses, utility demand is rapidly being destroyed (potentially stranding those utility fossil generation assets and their capital investment).

The sun is almost free, and batteries are getting cheap fast. Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in a few hours to power humanity for a year.

https://www.dw.com/en/pakistan-solar-power-renewable-energy-...

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/The-Uni...

> Pakistan comes to mind,

Interesting story - in pakistan, PV is an arbitrage/loophole.

Pakistan exporters are under capital controls, so they get a very bad exchange rate when they convert to ruppee. Instead, they buy panels (getting 100% worth of their dollars), which they ship into pakistan, and sell.

On the other side of the trade, home owners get a very generous feed in tarrif, due to pressure by wealthier constituents. This hits the local utility thrice (lost revenue, paying the feed in, AND massive duck curve)

Sigh. Humans will human...

(PV is still great and we need more of it)

Agreed! Thank you very much for the DW article; I hadn't seen that, though I did mention that dynamic in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42266903.

One nitpick, though. The article says, "Pakistan's solar revolution is only possible because of the plummeting cost of solar PV modules, which have reduced in price by 90% in the last 15 years alone," but the correct number is 94%, from €1.67/Wp for crystalline panels in China in November 02009 http://web.archive.org/web/20121027002200/http://www.solarse... to €0.10/Wp today https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis.... So the article understates the actual price drop by almost a factor of 2.

> (potentially stranding those utility fossil generation assets and their capital investment).

This is not true. For most of Pakistan's power plants, the loans (denominated in US dollars) were given in exchange of sovereign guarantees by the State of Pakistan. So, the capitalists, in theory, don't have anything to worry about. The whole country could switch to renewables, and the State of Pakistan will still have to pay back on their investments. The reason for the sovereign guarantee is because Pakistan does not have a stable political landscape, so the free market risk is too high for such large investments.

In practice, the government is forcing local investors to renegotiate some of the loan terms or contracts to reduce its payment obligations [1]. When I say forcing, I mean, mafia style. It's not clear how much this will help.

[1] https://www.brecorder.com/news/40331398