But you could also say: the prevailing argument for AI consistently hinges on the (imagined, projected based on naive assumptions) trajectory of AI rather than the present state.

> the astonishing velocity at which those capabilities are evolving.

This is what is repeated ad nauseam by AI companies desperate for investment and hype. Those who’ve been in the game since before this millennium tend not to be so impressed — recent gains have mostly been due to increased volume of computation and data with only a few real theoretical breakthroughs.

Laymen (myself included) were indeed astonished by ChatGPT, but it’s quite clear that those in the know saw it coming. Remember that those who say otherwise might have reasons (other than an earnest interest in the truth) for doing so.