Do you have null dereference bugs that you occasionally solve, even if only during development? The "billion dollar mistake" is a reference to the economic cost of all bugs it created as a concept. That doesn't mean you don't build techniques to work around it, but it does mean that that's the economic efficiency left on the floor.

In other words, the cognitive overhead you spend on worrying about nulls (however you do that), programmers in other languages spend on other things.

The reason Hoare used the word billion was to emphasize how costly it was compared to other things. That was certainly true in C code 40 years ago and more. Those bugs were hard to find and hard to fix. In java you get a full stack trace, it's quick to fix and it doesn't come up often. Like the OP said - In practice it's not really an issue. "Worrying about nulls" is not something that most programmers do.