> human-cognition-capable AI. I think it' pretty obvious by this point that that's not going to happen

It's obvious to some people but that's not what many investors and company operators are saying. I think the prevailing message in the valley is "AGI is going to happen" for different values of when, not if. So I think you'd be forgiven for taking them at face value.

Just like nuclear fusion, right? "When" will always be some time after the next fundraising round.