Practically, they could do both: Do an early reject of a given POST in case the ETag does not match, but re-validate this just before swapping out the objects (and committing to considering the given request as the successful one globally).

That said, I'm not sure if common HTTP libraries look at response headers before they're done posting a response body, or if that's even allowed/possible in HTTP? It seems feasible at a first glance with chunked encoding, at least.

Edit: Upon looking a bit, it seems that informational response codes, e.g. 100 (Continue) in combination with Expect 100-continue in the requests, could enable just that and avoid an extra GET with If-Match.