Can anyone speak to whether this is likely to succeed on its merits, or point to analysis of same by competent professionals?

Obviously, it looks like a pretty egregious case of Oracle-ness, but it's the job of Deno's lawyers to make it look like that. I'd be interested to see disinterested commentary.

I just started following a show on twitch called the litigation disaster tourism hour which is a lawyer commenting on various cases, and currently covering the WordPress stuff. Seems like it might be up his alley if somebody asks in his chat, though I generally can't catch it live to do that because of time zones