I feel like "AI taking programming jobs" is just yet another in a long list of hyped up things that so many people seem convinced about, but then never ends up happening.

In X years from now are the people that pushed this idea going to reflect and change their approach to things? I doubt it, they'll just have moved on to hyping up the next thing.

Off the top of my head, hyped up things that everyone "knew" that have yet to happen:

- Driverless cars. 10-20 years ago they were all the hype, my friends thought that in a year or two they'd have a driverless car, and now it's 10-20 years later and they can still not buy a driverless car.

- Bitcoin hype. All the people that were so convinced that bitcoin would take over, and people would be paying for groceries with bitcoin, and everyone would switch to bitcoin for everything and it'd be a huge revolution .. and it has yet to happen.

- NFT stuff. I feel like I don't need to explain this one.

- Another current one is "just keep scaling LLMs and AGI will magically happen, we're really close". Related to AI programming I guess. Check back in in 10 years on this one, it ain't going to happen.

- Various short-lived hypes where a bank closes down and everyone on HN and elsewhere is spreading doom about how it'll be a chain reaction and the whole economy will crash and .. it never happens, and everyone just forgets what was said.

It's just hype after hype after hype, it's exhausting.

printing press was hyped radio was hyped tv was hyped planes were hyped the internet was hyped

things arrive slow, big things take time

btc is almost 100k today i can take a waymo right now

i agree in between a there are letdowns and scams, but not all is hype

hype after hype is not exhausting, it’s exciting