> However, deliberately keeping low performers around as a buffer becomes a self-own on a longer time horizon. Smart managers will negotiate hiring exceptions to replace a low performer now rather than keep that headcount occupied for safety.

This is a "the times are good" play, and it can absolutely work. But the real trick is understanding

> Once a company institutes a hiring freeze

that if you as a manager are reacting here, the die is already cast. There are plenty of unofficial "we're frozen but aren't saying it out loud" moves I & peers in other companies are seeing right now: downleveling, additional approval gates added to slow things down to a more favorable time, you name it.

Yes, over a long enough time horizon ballast will weigh down the boat, but theta is on my side right now.