The entire field of game theory was originally developed to answer your question and so far the result of the combined efforts of 70 years of scholarly research has been "you are probably right but there are a lot of asterisks about communicating information and if some ayatollah gets both religious fervor for the afterlife and thermonuclear weapons it could go poorly".

"if some ayatollah gets both religious fervor for the afterlife and thermonuclear weapons"

Among that majority of the Iranian population who now dislikes the regime, it is a common belief that the regime is really only interested in preserving its wealth and power; it is no longer sincere religious fanaticism like back in Khomeini’s day.