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ianbicking 2 years ago

"IQ is Gaussian" – it was pointed out somewhere, and only then became obvious to me, that IQ is not Gaussian. The distribution is manufactured.

If you have 1000 possible IQ questions, you can ask a bunch of people those questions, and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created.

This is not unreasonable... if you picked out 100 super easy questions you wouldn't get much information, everyone would be in the "knows quite a lot" category. But you could try to create a uniform distribution, for instance, and still have a test that is usefully sensitive. But if you worry about the accuracy of the test then a Gaussian distribution is kind of convenient... there's this expectation that 50th percentile is not that different than 55th percentile, and people mostly care about that 5% difference only with 90th vs 95th. (But I don't think people care much about the difference between 10th percentile and 5th... which might imply an actual Pareto distribution, though I think it probably reflects more on societal attention)

Anyway, kind of an aside, but also similar to what the article itself is talking about

FredPret 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

This is a subtle aspect of intelligence measurement that not many people think about.

To go from an IQ of 100 to 130 might require an increase in brainpower of x, and from 130 to 170 might require 3x for example, and from 170-171 might be 9x compared to 100.

We have to have a relative scale and contrive a Gaussian from the scores because we don’t have an absolute measure of intelligence.

It would be a monumental achievement if computer science ever advances to the point where we have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute intelligence required to solve a given problem.

groby_b 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

> It would be a monumental achievement if computer science ever advances to the point where we have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute intelligence required to solve a given problem.

While that would be nice, it's likely a pipe dream :( There's a good chance "intelligence" is really a multi-dimensional thing influenced by a lot of different factors. We like pretending it's one-dimensional so we can sort folks (and money reinforces that one-dimensional thinking), but that means setting ourselves up for failure.

It doesn't help that the tests we currently have (e.g. IQ) are deeply flawed and taint any thinking about the space. (Not least because folks who took a test and scored well are deeply invested in that test being right ;)

FredPret 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

It might be the hardest problem of them all, because you'd have to understand how all problems work.

But on the other hand, maybe it all comes down to a Turing machine requiring a particular length of tape and runtime.

nextn 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

What is a flaw of the IQ test?

logicchains 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>It would be a monumental achievement if computer science ever advances to the point where we have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute intelligence required to solve a given problem

For a huge number of problems (including many on IQ tests) computer science does in fact have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute amount of compute necessary to solve the problem. That's what complexity theory is. Then it's just a matter of estimating someone's "compute" from how fast they solve a given class of problems relative to some reference computer.

FredPret 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

You're right - we can get closer and closer to an absolute measure by looking at many brains and AI's solving a problem, and converging to maximum performance given a certain amount of hardware by tweaking the algorithm or approach used.

But I think proving that maximum performance is really the ultimate level, from first principles, is a much harder task than looking at a performance graph and guesstimating the asymptote.

shkkmo 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

> Then it's just a matter of estimating someone's "compute" from how fast they solve a given class of problems relative to some reference computer.

Heh... "just"...

Good luck with that.

silvestrov 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

I wonder how a graph looks for "how many seconds does it take people to run 100 meters".

Might be a mix because quite a number of older or overweight people runs very slowly and some can't at all.

hammock 2 years ago | parent [-]

Poisson distribution

CSMastermind 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

IQ scores have proven highly correlated to educational achievement, occupational attainment, career advancement, lifetime earnings, brain volume, cortical thickness, health, longevity, and more.

To the point of being accurate predictors of these things even when controlling for things like socioeconomic background.

It's used because it works as a measuring tool, how the tests are constructed is largely irrelevant to the question of if the outcome of the test is an accurate predictor of things we care about.

If you think you have a better measuring tool you should propose it and win several awards and accolades. No one has found one yet in spite of many smart people trying for decades.

ianbicking 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

I'm not saying the ranking is necessarily wrong, but that turning the ranking into a distribution is constructed. And it MIGHT be a correct construction, but I am less confident that is true.

The distribution implies something like "someone at 50% is not that different than someone at 55%" but "someone at 90% is very different from 95%". That is: the x axis implies there's some unit of intelligence, and the actual intelligence of people in the middle is roughly similar despite ranking differences. That distribution also implies that when you get to the extremities the ranking reflects greater differences in intelligence.

HDThoreaun 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

The distribution implies that a score of 100 means you did better than half the population, and that a score of 130 means you did 2 standard deviations better than the population ie. better than 95% of other people. We have no objective measure of IQ so we use relative rankings. If you used a uniform distribution for iq everyone currently above 145 would have 99 out of 100 IQ. Normal distribution is useful when you want to differentiate points in the tails

Glyptodon 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

It does seem like you should assume the accuracy of the result decreases as you get away from the norm of an IQ test, though I have no idea if it's been validated. But particularly if there are mistakes on the test questions or any kinds of ambiguity in any of the questions, it seems like you'd expect that.

Like if you have two different IQ tests and someone takes one, and gets 100, if 100 is normed to the 50th percentile, maybe you have 95% confidence that on the next test they're also getting 100 +/- 2.5. But if they get 140, that's normed to like 99th percentile, maybe your 95% confidence interval for the next test is 140 +/- 12.5. (I really don't know, I just suspect that the higher the percentile someone gets, the less confidence you'd have and mostly know stats from physical and bio science labs, not from IQ or human evaluation contexts.)

jprete 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

The GP is saying that IQ tests are deliberately calibrated and normalized to produce a Gaussian output, and that the input is not necessarily a Gaussian distribution of any particular quantity.

This doesn't say anything in particular about whether it's useful, just that people should be careful interpreting the values directly.

lokar 2 years ago | parent [-]

Exactly. This is a criticism of the article where it says that HR has a good reason for assuming employee performance would be Gaussian, since IQ is Gaussian.

IQ is defined a being Gaussian

jppope 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Correct. IQ isn't an effective measurement of intelligence as is typically stated. It is (at best) a measurement of learning disabilities.

smj-edison 2 years ago | parent | next [-]

I think IQ is useful in aggregate (for example, a finding that exposure to local toxins reduces a cities' performance on IQ by 10 points), but not useful an an individual level (e.g. you have an IQ of 130, so we can say with certainty you will earn $30,000 more per year). It's similar with MRI scans of ADHD: they find brain differences at a large scale, but you can't use a MRI to diagnose ADHD.

liontwist 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It’s a pretty good measurement of your ability to play logic games and fast pattern match.

I’m sure we agree that doesn’t constitute “intelligence”, but it’s more than disability.

mjburgess 2 years ago | parent [-]

Individual test-retest variability is high. It's only a valid measure of anything much below 100.

Consider a test of walking speed which each time you take it gives results of (2, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 7, 3) etc. -- does this measure some innate property of walking speed? No.

Yet, if it were < 1, it would measure having a broken foot.

tptacek 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

I think this would be more accurate without the "at best"; I think IQ is widely considered to be a useful diagnostic measure, misapplied to prediction in generalized populations.

fnordlord 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I didn't know that about how IQ tests are formed. Would that mean that there could be some sliver of the population that could score in the top %'s on the 1000 question test but due to the selection of questions, scored average on the final IQ exam? If so, that'll be my excuse next time I have to take an IQ exam. I just got the wrong distribution.

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Sum of N independent similarly distributed variables (questions), will tend to be normally distributed, that the central limit theorem, no need to manufacture anything.

mjburgess 2 years ago | parent [-]

They're not independent.

2 years ago | parent | next [-]
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EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah, if one answers question A correctly, they is more likely to answer question B correctly, right?

sapiogram 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created.

You missed an extremely important final step. People's scores on those 100 questions still aren't going to form a Gaussion distribution. You have to rank-order everyone's scores, then you assign the final IQ scores based on each person's ranking, not their raw score.

fwip 2 years ago | parent [-]

It would form a gaussian distribution if you pick the questions carefully enough.

If you rank-order scores and fit to the distribution after the fact, the questions are nearly irrelevant, as long as you have a mix of easy, medium and hard questions.

sapiogram 2 years ago | parent [-]

> It would form a gaussian distribution if you pick the questions carefully enough.

Why would that be the case? The Central Limit Theorem does not apply here, because the observations (questions) are correlated with each other.

marcosdumay 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's worse, because every test is obviously bounded, and it's absurd to not expect some noise to be there.

Join those two, and the test only becomes reasonable near the middle. But the middle is exactly where the pick of questions makes the most difference.

All said, this means that IQ is kinda useful for sociological studies with large samples. But if you use it you are adding error, it's not reasonable to expect that error not to correlate with whatever you are looking at (since nobody understands it well), and it's not reasonable to expect the results to be stable. And it's really useless to make decisions based on small sample sizes.

SideQuark 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That’s not how IQ tests are made as can be found by reading how they’re actually made via Google scholar. And it would be spectacularly hard to do what you describe.

How they’re actually made is a batch of questions thought to take some form of reasoning are curated, then ALL of those questions are used in the test. It is an empirical fact the percentages of decent sized groups of people will score a bell curve, in exactly the same way humans do on hard calc exams, on hard writing items, on chess problems, and across a bewildering amount of mental tasks, none of which are preselected and fidgeted with to fake a Gaussian.

A simple example: see how many simple arithmetic problems people can do in fixed time. What do you find? Gaussian. No need to fiddle with removing pesky problem. Do reading. Do repeat this sequence for length. Just about any single class of questions has the same bell curve output in human mental ability. The curve may bend based on some inherent difficulty, say addition versus calculus, but there will be a bell curve.

Now take plenty of types of questions to address various wobbles in people’s knowledge, upbringing, culture, etc, giving a host of bell curves per category (and those also correlated by individual). Then the sum of gaussians is gausdian. All IQ tests do is shift the mean score to be called 100 (normalized) and the std dev to match a preset amount of people so such tests can be compared over time.

And the empirical evidence is these curves do strongly correlate over time, so scaling a test to align with this underlying g factor is well founded.

This latter fact, that score on one form of intelligence seems to transfer well to others, forms the basis of modern intelligence research on the g factor. IQ tests correlate well with this g factor. And across all sorts of things the results are bell curves.

For anyone wanting to hear all this and a ton more, Lex Fridman has an excellent interview with a state of the art intelligence researcher at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hppbxV9C63g. The researcher goes into great depth on what researchers do know, how they know it, what they don’t know, and what has been proven wrong. This is all there.

zo1 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

People may find that manufactured or "oh IQ is just made up and there is no measure of intelligence". But I find beauty in the way that IQ tests create and reconfigure a distribution across a multi-dimensional vector or dimensional space. It figures out what we need in the general case, and allows us to use and reason with it, without ever having to do the grunt work or arguably impossible task of finding out an actual measure of intelligence or some way to untangle the way a brain works.

tptacek 2 years ago | parent [-]

That's a problem with it: its high legibility masks the complex (and deceptively muddy) math underneath it. Cosma Shalizi's "Statistical Myth" essay is a good dive into this; the "general factor" underneath all the different IQ tests is more or less a statistical inevitability, reproducing even with totally random tests.

torginus 2 years ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes, this has always bothered me. IQ doesn't easily correspond to any measurable real-world quality.

For example, if we would postulate that height is gaussian, we could measure people's heights and just ordering them we could create a gaussian distribution. Then we could verify the hypothesis of height being gaussian by mapping the probability distribution function's parameter to a linear value (cm) and find that these approaches line up experimentally.

We could do the same thing with any comparable quantity and make an order of them and try to map them to a gaussian distribution, but we would have no knowledge if what we were making actually corresponded to a linear quantity.

This is a serious issue, as basically making any claim like 'group A scores 5 points higher than group B' is automatically, mathematically invalid.

seizethecheese 2 years ago | parent | prev [-]

I think your comment about an easy test having everyone in the “knows a lot” category hints that the reverse (a hard test) would be Pareto distributed.