| ▲ | ianbicking 7 months ago |
| "IQ is Gaussian" – it was pointed out somewhere, and only then became obvious to me, that IQ is not Gaussian. The distribution is manufactured. If you have 1000 possible IQ questions, you can ask a bunch of people those questions, and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created. This is not unreasonable... if you picked out 100 super easy questions you wouldn't get much information, everyone would be in the "knows quite a lot" category. But you could try to create a uniform distribution, for instance, and still have a test that is usefully sensitive. But if you worry about the accuracy of the test then a Gaussian distribution is kind of convenient... there's this expectation that 50th percentile is not that different than 55th percentile, and people mostly care about that 5% difference only with 90th vs 95th. (But I don't think people care much about the difference between 10th percentile and 5th... which might imply an actual Pareto distribution, though I think it probably reflects more on societal attention) Anyway, kind of an aside, but also similar to what the article itself is talking about |
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| ▲ | FredPret 7 months ago | parent | next [-] |
| This is a subtle aspect of intelligence measurement that not many people think about. To go from an IQ of 100 to 130 might require an increase in brainpower of x, and from 130 to 170 might require 3x for example, and from 170-171 might be 9x compared to 100. We have to have a relative scale and contrive a Gaussian from the scores because we don’t have an absolute measure of intelligence. It would be a monumental achievement if computer science ever advances to the point where we have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute intelligence required to solve a given problem. |
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| ▲ | groby_b 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | > It would be a monumental achievement if computer science ever advances to the point where we have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute intelligence required to solve a given problem. While that would be nice, it's likely a pipe dream :( There's a good chance "intelligence" is really a multi-dimensional thing influenced by a lot of different factors. We like pretending it's one-dimensional so we can sort folks (and money reinforces that one-dimensional thinking), but that means setting ourselves up for failure. It doesn't help that the tests we currently have (e.g. IQ) are deeply flawed and taint any thinking about the space. (Not least because folks who took a test and scored well are deeply invested in that test being right ;) | | |
| ▲ | FredPret 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | It might be the hardest problem of them all, because you'd have to understand how all problems work. But on the other hand, maybe it all comes down to a Turing machine requiring a particular length of tape and runtime. | |
| ▲ | nextn 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | What is a flaw of the IQ test? | | |
| ▲ | groby_b 7 months ago | parent [-] | | There is no "the IQ test". The most prominent ones are Stanford-Binet and Wechsler. That, I think is the first problem. There isn't a single agreement what IQ is or how to measure it. There isn't a single one for good reasons, because they all measure slightly different things. But that means that fundamentally any single IQ scale is likely flawed. (Wechsler acknowledges this. SB sorta does as well, but hides it well) But if we're looking for a second at Stanford Binet : It's hard to administer. Scoring requires subjective judgment. It's sexist. It uses language and situations that don't apply to current times. It's highly verbal. The normative sample is questionable (though SB-V has gotten better) And because I've had this discussion before: I'm not saying IQ tests are completely meaningless. Yes, there's some signal there. But it's so deeply flawed signal that building rigorous science on top of it is just hard to impossible. |
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| ▲ | logicchains 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >It would be a monumental achievement if computer science ever advances to the point where we have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute intelligence required to solve a given problem For a huge number of problems (including many on IQ tests) computer science does in fact have a mathematical way of determining the minimum absolute amount of compute necessary to solve the problem. That's what complexity theory is. Then it's just a matter of estimating someone's "compute" from how fast they solve a given class of problems relative to some reference computer. | | |
| ▲ | FredPret 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | You're right - we can get closer and closer to an absolute measure by looking at many brains and AI's solving a problem, and converging to maximum performance given a certain amount of hardware by tweaking the algorithm or approach used. But I think proving that maximum performance is really the ultimate level, from first principles, is a much harder task than looking at a performance graph and guesstimating the asymptote. | |
| ▲ | shkkmo 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Then it's just a matter of estimating someone's "compute" from how fast they solve a given class of problems relative to some reference computer. Heh... "just"... Good luck with that. |
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| ▲ | silvestrov 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | I wonder how a graph looks for "how many seconds does it take people to run 100 meters". Might be a mix because quite a number of older or overweight people runs very slowly and some can't at all. | | |
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| ▲ | CSMastermind 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| IQ scores have proven highly correlated to educational achievement, occupational attainment, career advancement, lifetime earnings, brain volume, cortical thickness, health, longevity, and more. To the point of being accurate predictors of these things even when controlling for things like socioeconomic background. It's used because it works as a measuring tool, how the tests are constructed is largely irrelevant to the question of if the outcome of the test is an accurate predictor of things we care about. If you think you have a better measuring tool you should propose it and win several awards and accolades. No one has found one yet in spite of many smart people trying for decades. |
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| ▲ | ianbicking 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm not saying the ranking is necessarily wrong, but that turning the ranking into a distribution is constructed. And it MIGHT be a correct construction, but I am less confident that is true. The distribution implies something like "someone at 50% is not that different than someone at 55%" but "someone at 90% is very different from 95%". That is: the x axis implies there's some unit of intelligence, and the actual intelligence of people in the middle is roughly similar despite ranking differences. That distribution also implies that when you get to the extremities the ranking reflects greater differences in intelligence. | | |
| ▲ | HDThoreaun 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | The distribution implies that a score of 100 means you did better than half the population, and that a score of 130 means you did 2 standard deviations better than the population ie. better than 95% of other people. We have no objective measure of IQ so we use relative rankings. If you used a uniform distribution for iq everyone currently above 145 would have 99 out of 100 IQ. Normal distribution is useful when you want to differentiate points in the tails | |
| ▲ | Glyptodon 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | It does seem like you should assume the accuracy of the result decreases as you get away from the norm of an IQ test, though I have no idea if it's been validated. But particularly if there are mistakes on the test questions or any kinds of ambiguity in any of the questions, it seems like you'd expect that. Like if you have two different IQ tests and someone takes one, and gets 100, if 100 is normed to the 50th percentile, maybe you have 95% confidence that on the next test they're also getting 100 +/- 2.5. But if they get 140, that's normed to like 99th percentile, maybe your 95% confidence interval for the next test is 140 +/- 12.5. (I really don't know, I just suspect that the higher the percentile someone gets, the less confidence you'd have and mostly know stats from physical and bio science labs, not from IQ or human evaluation contexts.) |
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| ▲ | jprete 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | The GP is saying that IQ tests are deliberately calibrated and normalized to produce a Gaussian output, and that the input is not necessarily a Gaussian distribution of any particular quantity. This doesn't say anything in particular about whether it's useful, just that people should be careful interpreting the values directly. | | |
| ▲ | lokar 7 months ago | parent [-] | | Exactly. This is a criticism of the article where it says that HR has a good reason for assuming employee performance would be Gaussian, since IQ is Gaussian. IQ is defined a being Gaussian | | |
| ▲ | ip26 7 months ago | parent [-] | | If IQ is a good predictor of employee performance, then it does follow that employee performance would be Gaussian. It doesn’t matter that IQ was “made” to be Gaussian. | | |
| ▲ | Majromax 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | Not necessarily. A "good predictor" could still result in non-Gaussian performance for at least two reasons: 1. The prediction could be on a relative rather than quantitative basis. If IQ(A) > IQ(B) always implies Perf(A) > Perf(B), then the absolute distributions for each could still be arbitrary. 2. A "good predictor" in the social sciences doesn't always mean that it explains a large part of the variance. If IQ quantitative correlates with observed performance on some scale, but it explains only 25% of the variance, then the distributions could still be quite different. Furthermore, if you're making this kind of quantitative comparison you must also have quantitative performance measurement, whereupon its probability density function should be much easier to directly estimate. | |
| ▲ | lokar 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | Are you assuming that employee performance is Gaussian? |
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| ▲ | jppope 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Correct. IQ isn't an effective measurement of intelligence as is typically stated. It is (at best) a measurement of learning disabilities. |
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| ▲ | smj-edison 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | I think IQ is useful in aggregate (for example, a finding that exposure to local toxins reduces a cities' performance on IQ by 10 points), but not useful an an individual level (e.g. you have an IQ of 130, so we can say with certainty you will earn $30,000 more per year). It's similar with MRI scans of ADHD: they find brain differences at a large scale, but you can't use a MRI to diagnose ADHD. | |
| ▲ | liontwist 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It’s a pretty good measurement of your ability to play logic games and fast pattern match. I’m sure we agree that doesn’t constitute “intelligence”, but it’s more than disability. | | |
| ▲ | mjburgess 7 months ago | parent [-] | | Individual test-retest variability is high. It's only a valid measure of anything much below 100. Consider a test of walking speed which each time you take it gives results of (2, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 7, 3) etc. -- does this measure some innate property of walking speed? No. Yet, if it were < 1, it would measure having a broken foot. | | |
| ▲ | liontwist 7 months ago | parent [-] | | Lots of research disagrees with you indicating it’s measurable and rigid throughout most of your life. | | |
| ▲ | mjburgess 7 months ago | parent [-] | | The entire field of psychometrics is pseudoscience, as is >>90% of research with the word "heritability" in it. The levels of pseudoscience in these areas, statistical malpractice, and the like is fairly obscene. Nothing is reproducible, and it survives only because academia is now a closed-system paper mill where peer citation is the standard of publication and tenure. A discussion of statistical malpractice is difficult on HN, consider how easily fooled these idiots are by statistics. Researchers motivated to get into psychology are not rigorous empirical statisticians, instead they are given stats GUIs into which they put data and press play. These are the most gullible lot you'll ever find in anything called science. The world would be better off if a delete button could be pressed on the whole activity. It's a great tragedy that it continues. | | |
| ▲ | liontwist 7 months ago | parent [-] | | If it was really “pseudoscience” you would present the experiment that demonstrates it’s obviously false rather than name calling (asserting a label with a negative connotation). The reality is not so clear and you have to contest with decade long studies in support. Maybe those studies have flaws, but it’s not a vacuum. I have already stated I don’t believe IQ is intelligence. | | |
| ▲ | mjburgess 7 months ago | parent [-] | | There is no experiment which proves its false. This is the problem with pseudoscience, it's "not even wrong". Psychometrics presents summaries of data as if they are properties of reality. As-if taking a mean of survey data meant that this this mean was a property of the survey givers. This applies only in extremely controlled experiments in physics, and even then, somewhat rarely. All one has to do to show the entire field is pseudoscience is present a single more plausible theory than "mean of data distribution = innate property", and this is trivially done (eg., cf. mutualism about intelligence). | | |
| ▲ | liontwist 7 months ago | parent [-] | | You’re softening your position, you agree it exists and is testable, you just disagree with the interpretation of those results. > is present a single more plausible theory A minority support for a workable theory is quite a bit different state of affairs than “false science” which the word implies. It’s a form of name calling. > There is no experiment which proves it’s false. This is the problem with pseudoscience, it's "not even wrong". In other words it’s lost popularity in certain academic circles, but not because of overwhelming new evidence. > This applies only in extremely controlled experiments in physics, I agree, which is why you can’t casually dismiss developed psychological theories as if they are from a crank, and you are enlightened. | | |
| ▲ | mjburgess 7 months ago | parent [-] | | There is a "positive manifold" of results across test we call "intelligence tests", this is a property of the test data. What "IQ" does is take the mean of this and call it a property -- no such property exists. Consider athleticism: across all sporting activites there's a positive correlation of ability. Call it "athleticism". But people do not have "athleticism". If you break there leg some of these correlations disappear, and some survive. Atheticism is a result of a very large number of properties of people, which arises out of highly complex interactions. Heritability measures the correlation of traits with genes. We have ~20k genes, and we share 90% with mice, almost no genes code for traits. The vast majority of trait-gene correlations are caused by geographical (and cultural) mating patterns. So scottish accents are nearly 100% heritable, since nearly all people with one share some genes; and nearly all people without one do not have at least some of these genes. So much for "heritability" -- the use of this statistic, outside of extremely narrow biological experiments where corrlation is the result of causing genes to corrlete (by design) -- is pseudoscience. And so 1) there is no trait "intelligence"; and 2) all claims to trait-intelligence-gene correlation are confounded by massive non-genetic factors beyond causal control. And so: psychometrics is pseudoscience. The vast majority of its popular results are by frauds, charlatans and just plain idiots. I have no pleasant words for them: I call them by their name. Fraud is rampent, and even if it weren't, given causal-physiological semantics to factor correlations is pseudoscience. It wasnt very hard to see, many of the citations in these famous works of IQ research were conducted under extreme causal confounders (eg., black people in aprethid south africa, people selected for the IQ test by an IQ test, etc.). There isnt any kind of scientific research which can today establish "IQ" as a property of people --- we have no experiments which can control for known, massive, confounders. We cannot breed generations of people with deterministic genetic variation, deterministic childhoods, (etc. etc.). This kind of science is as impossible today as microbiology was to the greeks. | | |
| ▲ | liontwist 7 months ago | parent [-] | | If you're willing to agree "IQ" is in the same realm "Athleticism" in terms of realism and heritability, then I have nothing more to say. There would be no question studying IQ is incredibly valuable. Sure, maybe there is no part of the human which is the IQ, and it's a merely a summary of other factors being expressed. I don't think IQ researchers ever claimed otherwise. Are you familiar with "entropy"? Isn't that a statistical summary of a configuration of atoms? Wow! Emergent properties, with no physical existence are a big part of science. | | |
| ▲ | tptacek 7 months ago | parent [-] | | What do you think "heritable" means, and why does that make it "incredibly valuable" to study? |
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| ▲ | tptacek 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think this would be more accurate without the "at best"; I think IQ is widely considered to be a useful diagnostic measure, misapplied to prediction in generalized populations. |
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| ▲ | fnordlord 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I didn't know that about how IQ tests are formed.
Would that mean that there could be some sliver of the population that could score in the top %'s on the 1000 question test but due to the selection of questions, scored average on the final IQ exam?
If so, that'll be my excuse next time I have to take an IQ exam. I just got the wrong distribution. |
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| ▲ | EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Sum of N independent similarly distributed variables (questions), will tend to be normally distributed, that the central limit theorem, no need to manufacture anything. |
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| ▲ | mjburgess 7 months ago | parent [-] | | They're not independent. | | |
| ▲ | 7 months ago | parent | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah, if one answers question A correctly, they is more likely to answer question B correctly, right? | | |
| ▲ | mjburgess 7 months ago | parent [-] | | Indeed. The whole premise of the activity is that they are highly correlated. The imposition of a normal distribution is done ad-hoc at the population level. All it says is that if scores were normally distributed, then "people would be so-and-so comparable". Almost all assumptions of this method are false. Any time anyone mentions the central limit theorem in applied stats is a warning sign for pseudoscience. If reality existed at the end of the CLT, it would be in heat death. |
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| ▲ | sapiogram 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > and then pick out 100 questions that form a Gaussian distribution. This is how IQ tests are created. You missed an extremely important final step. People's scores on those 100 questions still aren't going to form a Gaussion distribution. You have to rank-order everyone's scores, then you assign the final IQ scores based on each person's ranking, not their raw score. |
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| ▲ | fwip 7 months ago | parent [-] | | It would form a gaussian distribution if you pick the questions carefully enough. If you rank-order scores and fit to the distribution after the fact, the questions are nearly irrelevant, as long as you have a mix of easy, medium and hard questions. | | |
| ▲ | sapiogram 7 months ago | parent [-] | | > It would form a gaussian distribution if you pick the questions carefully enough. Why would that be the case? The Central Limit Theorem does not apply here, because the observations (questions) are correlated with each other. |
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| ▲ | marcosdumay 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's worse, because every test is obviously bounded, and it's absurd to not expect some noise to be there. Join those two, and the test only becomes reasonable near the middle. But the middle is exactly where the pick of questions makes the most difference. All said, this means that IQ is kinda useful for sociological studies with large samples. But if you use it you are adding error, it's not reasonable to expect that error not to correlate with whatever you are looking at (since nobody understands it well), and it's not reasonable to expect the results to be stable. And it's really useless to make decisions based on small sample sizes. |
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| ▲ | SideQuark 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That’s not how IQ tests are made as can be found by reading how they’re actually made via Google scholar. And it would be spectacularly hard to do what you describe. How they’re actually made is a batch of questions thought to take some form of reasoning are curated, then ALL of those questions are used in the test. It is an empirical fact the percentages of decent sized groups of people will score a bell curve, in exactly the same way humans do on hard calc exams, on hard writing items, on chess problems, and across a bewildering amount of mental tasks, none of which are preselected and fidgeted with to fake a Gaussian. A simple example: see how many simple arithmetic problems people can do in fixed time. What do you find? Gaussian. No need to fiddle with removing pesky problem. Do reading. Do repeat this sequence for length. Just about any single class of questions has the same bell curve output in human mental ability. The curve may bend based on some inherent difficulty, say addition versus calculus, but there will be a bell curve. Now take plenty of types of questions to address various wobbles in people’s knowledge, upbringing, culture, etc, giving a host of bell curves per category (and those also correlated by individual). Then the sum of gaussians is gausdian. All IQ tests do is shift the mean score to be called 100 (normalized) and the std dev to match a preset amount of people so such tests can be compared over time. And the empirical evidence is these curves do strongly correlate over time, so scaling a test to align with this underlying g factor is well founded. This latter fact, that score on one form of intelligence seems to transfer well to others, forms the basis of modern intelligence research on the g factor. IQ tests correlate well with this g factor. And across all sorts of things the results are bell curves. For anyone wanting to hear all this and a ton more, Lex Fridman has an excellent interview with a state of the art intelligence researcher at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hppbxV9C63g. The researcher goes into great depth on what researchers do know, how they know it, what they don’t know, and what has been proven wrong. This is all there. |
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| ▲ | zo1 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| People may find that manufactured or "oh IQ is just made up and there is no measure of intelligence". But I find beauty in the way that IQ tests create and reconfigure a distribution across a multi-dimensional vector or dimensional space. It figures out what we need in the general case, and allows us to use and reason with it, without ever having to do the grunt work or arguably impossible task of finding out an actual measure of intelligence or some way to untangle the way a brain works. |
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| ▲ | tptacek 7 months ago | parent [-] | | That's a problem with it: its high legibility masks the complex (and deceptively muddy) math underneath it. Cosma Shalizi's "Statistical Myth" essay is a good dive into this; the "general factor" underneath all the different IQ tests is more or less a statistical inevitability, reproducing even with totally random tests. |
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| ▲ | torginus 7 months ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yes, this has always bothered me. IQ doesn't easily correspond to any measurable real-world quality. For example, if we would postulate that height is gaussian, we could measure people's heights and just ordering them we could create a gaussian distribution. Then we could verify the hypothesis of height being gaussian by mapping the probability distribution function's parameter to a linear value (cm) and find that these approaches line up experimentally. We could do the same thing with any comparable quantity and make an order of them and try to map them to a gaussian distribution, but we would have no knowledge if what we were making actually corresponded to a linear quantity. This is a serious issue, as basically making any claim like 'group A scores 5 points higher than group B' is automatically, mathematically invalid. |
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| ▲ | seizethecheese 7 months ago | parent | prev [-] |
| I think your comment about an easy test having everyone in the “knows a lot” category hints that the reverse (a hard test) would be Pareto distributed. |