As an agnostic, this is a topic that greatly interests me.

One challenge I've found in navigating this is determining the extent to which (interpretation from an untrained but intelligent layperson) == (interpretation from someone with a lot more historical, linguistic, and theological training).

I.e., how much research is needed before one can reasonably conclude that the "promise" being evaluated isn't just a straw man.

You could reach out to someone with knowledge in that area and ask to talk. Like a theology professor, nerdy pastor, or even a local Jesuit.