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manvillej 15 hours ago

Governments pay to keep food at the cheapest point possible to ensure stability. a fed population doesn't kill their governments. Agriculture is not a regular industry; its a national security issue

Farming is not a profitable endeavor. There would be a lot less financial advisors in the world otherwise. A carbon tax will either drive up prices or reduce suppliers, increasing prices. Reducing farmland will require more efficient methods which will also drive up prices

The result will be the public pays more for food, not the agriculture industry makes any more or less money. It will require more imports which will come from countries with less regulation and more exploitable resources.

We've seen the story of disruptions to the food supply play out before. The reality is this is a more dangerous gamble than most people realize.

danlitt 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I am not sure how this responds to the comment you are actually responding to. You say,

> Governments pay to keep food cheap > A carbon tax will either drive up prices or [drive up prices]

So, this is just number rearranging. The public pays either way. Ok. The comment you replied to says

> Currently the public subsidizes the agriculture industry by paying for the consequences of the industry's carbon emissions.

So the public pays in this case too. More number rearranging. Not at all clear why this makes prices increase.

So why do you think this implies prices increase? Do you think the price of carbon determined by the government is too high? Or do you just want to ignore this externality until we pay it all at once?

mtsr 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Denmark has a population of 5.8 million and currently produces enough to feed 15 million. There’s no need for imports because of 15% less farmland. Besides, all this export only contributes about 1% of GDP. So it’s not economically important either.

One can even argue that the reduction in environmental and climate impact will create room for other industries that already are carbon-taxed.

Ma8ee 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As you point out, there are several valid reasons to subsidise farming. But then subsidise farming, not carbon emissions! And while you are at it, use those subsidies to encourage farming that is sustainable, both for the climate as well as biodiversity.

usrusr 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

And that can be sustained in international crisis: farming that is a house of cards highly dependent on international supply chains of fertilizer, feedstock and fuel won't help you all that much under blockade.

radicalbyte 10 hours ago | parent [-]

No-one mentions this when food security is discussed. The farmers here in NL use the security excuse too but absolutely no-one mentions that their food production is directly dependant upon the import of magnitudes higher tonnage of feedstock - soya from Brazil - than the meat / dairy it produces. Then I'm not even looking at the fertilizers / chemicals which are also imported.

markvdb 2 hours ago | parent [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belaruskali comes to mind...

spacemanspiff01 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Isn't that what they are doing? They subsidize the farmers separately, and charge a carbon tax separately. Even if those are initially the same amount you would think that the incentive structure would encourage farmers to shift to less c02 methods, as that improves profit?

jdenning 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What's the point of a carbon tax if it's balanced by a government subsidy?

Edit: Genuinely curious what I'm missing..

addcommitpush 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Low carbon farms balance would be: "low carbon" profit + subsidy - small carbon tax

High carbon farms balance would be: "high carbon" profit + subsidy - high carbon tax

If ["low carbon" profit - small carbon tax] > ["high carbon" profit - high carbon tax] (e.g. if the carbon tax is high enough), farms have an incentive to lower their carbon emissions.

The subsidy is here to make sure ["low carbon" profit + subsidy - small carbon tax] > 0

jdenning 7 hours ago | parent [-]

That makes sense - thanks!

bramblerose 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The subsidy could be independent from the carbon emissions (e.g. by subsidies on the produced goods) while the carbon tax isn't, effectively creating an incentive to produce in a less carbon intensive manner.

chgs 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If I can make 1 unit of food for €50 and use 50 tons of carbon, or make it for €60 and use 10 tons of carbon, a carbon tax and food subsidy would allow me to sell that €60 low carbon food for €50 and force me to sell the high carbon food for €60

This gives an economic incentive to use the lower carbon method, funded by those who use more carbon, while not changing the end price or output.

JacobJeppesen 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Just to provide the numbers: in 2030, a tax will be introduced of 120 DKK (~16€) / ton CO2e, which linearly increases each year until it reaches 300 DKK (~40€) / ton CO2e in 2035. However, the farmers can get subsidies for changing their practices and adopting new technologies, in order to reduce their emissions. I.e., the government will give you money to change your production, so you can minimize the carbon taxes you have to pay. There are more technicalities to how it works, but that's the gist of it. The important part is that the goal is to transition to new technologies and production methods, which reduces emissions per unit food produced.

There will be no food subsidy, however, and a rough estimate of the increase of food cost is something like 1.5%, with beef having the highest increase. Take this estimate with a grain of salt though, as it's difficult to estimate. An increase in food cost is expected though.

dukeyukey 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You tax the carbon (something you want less of) and you subsidise something else you want more of. So you might end up with the average farmer not having a change of costs, but still disincentivising stuff we don't want e.g. carbon emissions.

vuxie 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Specifically on reducing farmland. Denmark is intensly cultivated, and the reduction targets the lowest yield land that for various reasons were reclaimed over the last two centuries. Using the high yield land more efficiently is intended.

wqaatwt 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> A carbon tax will either drive up prices or reduce suppliers, increasing prices

Of if there is an equivalent subsidy (i.e. the tax is basically redistributed) it would encourage to produce less carbon/methane intensive production

rob74 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So, what are you proposing? Just do nothing about climate change, as we have done before, and have worse social consequences in the near future rather than now? Denmark is more at risk from rising sea levels than other countries (https://cphpost.dk/2023-02-17/news/rising-sea-levels-threate...), so they want to do something about it.

kvgr 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The food needs to be produced somewhere. If denmark exports, then the food will be missing somewhere. So you do not fix "climate change". You only fix local effects of agriculture. I am not saying it is good or bad. But it def makes denmark poorer.

motohagiography 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

not OP, but how about some technology innovation instead of governance and taxation? the effect of taxing farmers as though they were some kind of vanity industry will be similar to what nationalizing farms has done in prior schemes like this.

it creates a national dependency on imported food from countries that do not bankrupt their farmers, and suddenly (shocked!) the entire Danish food supply crosses the borders to arrive and is then subject to federal management. this latter case is of course the purpose, and climate change is merely a pretext. I hope european farmers are able to organize a revolt.

ZeroGravitas 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> how about some technology innovation instead of governance and taxation

The history of solar, EVs, batteries etc. show these work hand in hand.

Why invent a way to capture methane from slurry, or form a business to sell that idea to farmers if they're allowed to pollute for free?

shakna 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What technological innovation do you think farming could adopt, that it hasn't already...? They don't operate with simple machinery. They regularly use some of the most complicated systems that mankind can build, such as satellite systems, chemical analyses, etc.

Governance is needed, where progress does not occur naturally.

roenxi 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How will converting farmland to forests help with climate change? It seems like it would have no particular impact or make the situation worse w.r.t. climate change for Denmark. If it is a good idea I'd imagine it would also be a good idea if the climate was not changing.

Denmark has no ability to impact global CO2 emissions at all. In fact nobody does except ironically the Chinese and their industrial-growth-at-any-cost coal based approach from the 90s and 00s.

ZeroGravitas 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Land use is one of the big topics covered by the IPCC:

https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/

geysersam 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> how will converting farmland to forest

Farming is very carbon emission intensive if the farmland is reclaimed wetland. Converting the farmland to forest and stopping draining (making it more wet again) can definitely reduce carbon emissions significantly.

> Denmark has no ability to impact global CO2 emissions

This is such a tiresome and logically hollow argument. Denmark has the ability to reduce a fraction of the worlds emissions. The size of the fraction is proportional to the size of their emissions. Every country has a responsibility to reduce it's per capita emissions to sustainable levels. China has lower per capita emissions than most richer countries.

addcommitpush 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Note that China has no ability to impact global CO2 emissions either.

Let’s split China population in k Denmark-sized groups, plus one smaller-than-Denmark reminder.

None of the k groups has any ability to impact global CO2 emissions (same as Denmark).

We can reasonably assume that a smaller group has even less ability to impact global CO2 emissions than a bigger group. Hence the smaller-than-Denmark reminder has no ability to impact global CO2 emissions either.

Thus China is made of groups that have no ability to impact global CO2 emissions either. And therefore China as a whole has no ability to impact global CO2 emissions. (Otherwise at least one group within China would have to impact global emissions and we just saw that it isn’t possible).

This is known as the CO2 impossibility theorem, loosely based on Arrow’s concept of “(in)decisive” set.

roenxi 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Your logic is wrong - a Denmark sized group of Chinese people is probably all it takes to operate their solar panel producing factories.

The reason Denmark can't do anything isn't because there are few of them, it is because Denmark isn't a significant industrial cluster for energy technology and innovation. For example, India has more people than China and they aren't in a position to do much unless there is some sort of tech breakthrough that hasn't made it to my notice.

ZeroGravitas 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Denmark basically invented modern wind power and still makes a big chunk of it (though China has caught up in that area recently).

oezi 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Certainly you are just demonstrating the opposite. Everyone has the ability to impact global CO2 emmissions.

We certainly need international coordination or actors with a minimal set of morals to achieve it.

addcommitpush 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Everyone has the ability to impact global CO2 emmissions.

I'm afraid most people are smaller-than-Denmark groups, and thus unable whatsoever to impact global emissions. It's just math.

geysersam 7 hours ago | parent [-]

1e-10 is reeeallly close to zero, therefore 1e10 * 1e-10 is also close to zero.

That's what your math sounds like to me.

oezi 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

His math is x ~ 0, hence x / 10 = 0, hence x = NaN.

The starting point is just wrong that Denmark can't play a role when it comes to climate change. Denmark can make a change. It is like saying that when voting that no individual vote or county matters, when the opposite is true: every vote matters in the same way.

Every kg CO2 saved is good... (obviously we should strive for the most economic way to save CO2).

addcommitpush 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Isn't it true?

    f = lambda x: (1/x) * x
    f(1e309)
yields NaN, not 1.

(So I guess Denmark is at least 1e309-sized in some metric).

itishappy 2 minutes ago | parent [-]

No.

chaostheory 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the masses interpret these changes as “let them eat cake” given that inflation is already hammering the middle and lower classes.

RayVR 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

in Denmark, inflation is currently running at a 1.6% annualized rate, as of the most recent reading[0]. This is the full basket inflation rate, including volatile categories (food and energy). Core inflation is even lower, with the latest reading at 1.3% (annualized) in October 2024. Food inflation is, of course, volatile. It currently sits at a moderately elevated level of 3.9% (October 2024, annualized).

Food prices declined earlier this year for two consecutive months, though that will be a minor consolation after the significant food price inflation in 2022 and persisting, though at a slower pace, through 2023.

All of that to say, "let them eat cake" mentality is unlikely in a country where they have consistently ranked at the top of a world happiness index. Additionally, while I'm not well versed in Danish politics, I am under the impression that the Social Democrats have responded much better to the mass immigration that has been an ongoing issue for many parties throughout Europe. I think this is indicative of a party that adapts rather more quickly to the consequences of their previous policies and is less ideologically stubborn - at least on some issues.

0: https://ycharts.com/indicators/denmark_inflation_rate

lowkey 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Economists look at inflation on a month/month or year/year basis. This is not an accident as it purposely ignores the destructive cumulative effect of inflation.

Individuals, by contrast look at the cumulative effect of inflation. If inflation runs hot for several years and then comes back to a moderate level, prices don’t go down regardless of what economists would have you believe. The effect of inflation has memory.

chairmansteve 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Denmark is a net exporter of food. In other words a net importer of agricultural pollution. So they could refice food exports without domestic political consequences. In theory.