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If the Trump tariffs are based on country of final assembly, then yes, final assembly will just occur somewhere else, but it will take a couple of years to setup, and the inflation shock by that time will have done a lot of damage to the economy (recession likely, depression possible). It makes sense that it took Trump forever to find a treasury secretary willing to go along with this.

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csomar 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You can bribe officials in Vietnam/Mexico. So they'll be your country of "final assembly".

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seanmcdirmid 12 hours ago | parent [-]

I doubt the Americans will let them do that so easily.

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phil21 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They already are. Just one tiny well-explained example, although it's utterly rampant:

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/1197961495/the-trade-fraud-de...

No bribery required though, at least in most cases.

	▲	seanmcdirmid 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		They tried stockpiling aluminum in Mexico during the Trump ban and that was shutdown quickly. I guess they just have to be more convoluted about it. I wonder if Trump will do something like “tariff China and any country that doesn’t tariff China itself (transitive)”, but it feels like it might be futile to do that.

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torginus 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The alternative is having empty shelves in stores.

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Yeul 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Trump tariffs will turn the entire world to China. America may no longer be interested in free trade and go full isolationism but many smaller countries can not. A painful truth is that for Europe the millions of containers with goods from Asia are a lifeline.

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omeid2 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Couple of years for a western enterprise maybe, but in the east, things move fast. Really fast.

	▲	seanmcdirmid 12 hours ago \| parent [-]
		It depends if Trump tariffs just China or everyone. He promised high tariffs for China, but tariffs on all imports besides.