What £/kWh rate could we achieve at 2am, if we had the perfect localised modern pricing model?

The whole point of the discussion is that there would be no single answer to that question: the number will vary by location, and by the current availability of power, because it becomes a price signal.

It would likely converge on wind farm strike prices plus margin, so about 10p/kWh .. if you lived in Scotland or near the coast. Being a localized market I would expect to see higher prices in London.

But there's also a risk of spikes. You'd probably want a regulatory guarantee of maximum prices, I think during the Texas crisis it got over $100/unit at one point.

If you use "Octopus Agile" (which "directly follows half-hourly wholesale electricity prices") then on Friday 22nd in Southern Scotland [1] you could have enjoyed electricity prices ranging from 14.9p/kWh at 02:30 to 46.4p at 16:30 and an average rate of 24.8p

On a handful of days - such as yesterday [2] which was very windy - prices fell as low as -2.6p at 03:30

For comparison, a 'regular' energy supplier will charge 23.47p/kWh for anytime use.

[1] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/22 [2] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/24

0-infinity

Depends on the weather.