What £/kWh rate could we achieve at 2am, if we had the perfect localised modern pricing model?

The whole point of the discussion is that there would be no single answer to that question: the number will vary by location, and by the current availability of power, because it becomes a price signal.

It would likely converge on wind farm strike prices plus margin, so about 10p/kWh .. if you lived in Scotland or near the coast. Being a localized market I would expect to see higher prices in London.

But there's also a risk of spikes. You'd probably want a regulatory guarantee of maximum prices, I think during the Texas crisis it got over $100/unit at one point.

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michaelt 10 months ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If you use "Octopus Agile" (which "directly follows half-hourly wholesale electricity prices") then on Friday 22nd in Southern Scotland [1] you could have enjoyed electricity prices ranging from 14.9p/kWh at 02:30 to 46.4p at 16:30 and an average rate of 24.8p

On a handful of days - such as yesterday [2] which was very windy - prices fell as low as -2.6p at 03:30

For comparison, a 'regular' energy supplier will charge 23.47p/kWh for anytime use.

[1] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/22 [2] https://agilebuddy.uk/historic/agile/2024/11/24

	▲	switch007 10 months ago \| parent [-]
		So ~1-2x at the time many want to use energy, and 0.5x at the time when most people are asleep So you generally pay more unless you become nocturnal or unemployed/homemaker?

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tcfhgj 10 months ago | parent | prev | next [-]

0-infinity

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amoshebb 10 months ago | parent [-]

Why the lower bound on 0? Places with overproduction sometimes pay to curtail

	▲	tcfhgj 10 months ago \| parent [-]
		Renewables can be turned off quite quickly.

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adrianN 10 months ago | parent | prev [-]

Depends on the weather.

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switch007 10 months ago | parent [-]

What's the range?

And to quote the person to whom I replied: "If you put actual numbers on it, you would be able to have a sane discussion "

There is often an implication or assertion that the tech to enable surge pricing will actually enable way cheaper energy. So I want to know the estimated unit prices.

	▲	adrianN 10 months ago \| parent [-]
		I don’t think a satisfying answer fits in a HN comment box. On windy nights with low demand power is essentially free, on windstill nights with severe frost power will be extremely expensive. Sufficient nuance to enable a fact based discussion would probably fill several pages, as there are many factors that influence the price.