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On the flip side, if default placement was eliminated and browsers asked users which search engine they'd like on first launch...I still believe most users would pick Google anyway and the main loser would be Firefox as search engine placement is the majority of their revenue.

Furthermore, ChatGPT reaching 100m users in 2 months also suggests that browser placement isn't the biggest factor into where users send their queries.

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eviks 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

"Most" isn't relevant here, if share goes down from 90% to 51% - monopoly problem solved.

Same with the factors- ok, let it be the second-biggest factor, so?

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Ferret7446 4 days ago | parent [-]

You are being extremely optimistic with that number. I would put it around 80-85%.

Google search usage is not going to drop 50% just because it's not the default.

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ethbr1 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

> just because it's not the default

On HN, we probably drastically overestimate the number of people who change any default.

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dismalaf 4 days ago | parent | next [-]

Chrome is only the default browser on Pixel devices which are what, 1% of devices worldwide? Less than 5% in the US anyway.

On desktop Edge or Safari are defaults, iOS is Safari, on Samsung phones it's Samsung Internet.

People have to go out of their way to install Chrome, and yet it's got a majority of market share.

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kweingar 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

The success of the Chrome browser on desktop proves otherwise, no?

It's interesting that the argument is "nobody can compete with defaults" when one of the proposed remedies is to break off the part of the company that was too successful at competing with defaults.

	▲	ethbr1 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Chrome organic growth was powered by a special confluence of historical events: - IE was bloated and lazy from being dominant - Google controlled one of the most visited websites in the world (pre-mobile appification) - V8 performance boosted the web's then-cutting-edge js features Those are huge tailwinds. In contrast to now, where Chrome spends more time trying to deprecate mv2, link user browing to a Google identity, and find a way to recreate tracking cookies. When's the last time Chrome shipped innovation that made users' lives measurably better? Per tab processes?

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eviks 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

You misunderstand the meaning of that number, it wasn't a forecast

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diffeomorphism 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

That is not "on the flip side" but "now that the damage is done".